GBPAUD dived below the April and February 2021 lows of 1.7739 and 1.7688 respectively today, recording a near 14-month low of 1.7655 following an aggressive one-and-a-half-month decline, which began around the beginning of February. The dip in the 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) indicates sellers’ recent dominance in the pair, and the diving 50-day SMA, which has completed bearish crossovers with both longer-term averages, is confirming that the bearish trend is sustaining its descending pace.
The falling Ichimoku lines suggest that negative forces are very much active, while the short-term oscillators reflect persistent downward momentum. The MACD, deep in the negative zone, has pierced back beneath its red trigger line, while the RSI is sinking further past the 30 oversold level. Moreover, the stochastic lines, which are in oversold territory, display a lack of opposing positive forces.
If the descent in the pair endures, downside constraints could originate from the nearby 1.7548-1.7590 support band. If sellers drive the pair lower, the critical 25-month trough of 1.7413 could draw traders’ attention, as it is where the pair eventually bottomed after it collapsed from the March 2020 high of 2.0591. Sinking past this crucial support may exacerbate the downward trajectory, solidifying a prolonged bearish outlook with the December 2018 lows of 1.7289 and 1.7208 looking like the next resorts for the pair to find some footing.
Alternatively, if buyers re-emerge and lift the price above the 1.7688 and 1.7739 obstacles, they may tackle nearby resistance arising from the 1.7841 high and the descending red Tenkan-sen line at 1.7898. In the event the pair builds additional upside momentum off this uptick in positive forces, the bulls could be encouraged to challenge the 1.8126-1.8209 key resistance barricade.
Currently, GBPAUD’s bearish bias looks unbreakable and if the price closes below the more than two-year low of 1.7413, a grim plot is likely to endure. Adding credence to this viewpoint is the fact that the price would need to make profound improvements overcoming the 1.8126-1.8209 border to revive some optimism in the pair.
