STOCKS
Equities are mixed. Dow looks stable but while above immediate support, view is bullish for the coming week. Dax can fall to 15500/400 before bouncing back from there. Nikkei and Shanghai look bullish towards 29000/29500 and 3725 respectively. Nifty and Sensex can rise towards 17600/800 and 59000 respectively while above immediate support levels.
Dow (35754.69, -0.059, -0.00016%) has been stable but sustains above support near 35500 for now and while that sustains, a rise towards 36250-36500 can be possible in the near term.
DAX (15639.26, -47.83, -0.30%) came down from levels just above 15800 instead of sustaining higher. A fall to 15500-15400 looks likely in the near term.
Nikkei (28609.84, -115.63, -0.40%) has dipped again today. But while above 28500, the view remains bullish to see a rise towards 29000/29500. Else a fall to 28250-28000 is possible.
Shanghai (3661.49, -11.55, -0.31%) has risen well and can test 3700 before coming off from there. If the index manages a rise above 3700, it would be bullish for a further test of 3725 which is a medium term resistance holding since the beginning of the year..
Nifty (17516.85, +47.10, +0.27%) rose yesterday after opening lower in the morning. The outlook is bullish for a rise towards 17600/800 in the coming days while the index sustains above 17400.
Sensex (58807.13, +157.45, +0.27%) also climbed up. The index needs to break above 59000 to see a rise towards 60000. Else we may expect the 58000-59000 range to hold for the near term.
COMMODITIES
Crude prices have come down as expected but we need to see if it would be in a range or continue to fall in the near term. Gold is ranged within 1790/1800-1770/60 while Silver can test 21 if it breaks below 22. Copper is ranged within 4.25-4.40 and needs to decisively break on either side to give further directional cues.
Brent (74.37) fell in line with our expectation of a fall from 77/78. We need to see if the fall sustains and takes it lower towards 70 again or maintains trade above 70 for now. Overall resistance near 77/78 may hold for the coming week too.
WTI (70.92) has also fallen sharply as expected and can fall to 68/67 before again bouncing back from there.
Gold (1778.60) is raged within 1760-1790/1800 for now and may continue so for a few more sessions before a break on either side of the rang is seen.
Silver (22.02) has dipped to trade near interim support at 22 which if breaks can lead to a fall to 21 before reversing the near term trend from there.
Copper (4.3210) fell sharply from 4.40 and can test 4.25 before again rising back to higher levels. A range of 4.25-4.40 is holding for now.
FOREX
Two-way volatility seen in Chinese Yuan and EURJPY. But USDCNY and EURJPY both look bearish while below 6.39/40 and 129.50 respectively. Dolalr Index is ranged within 95.50-96.50 keeping Euro ranged within 1.1450/00-1.12. Aussie and Pound have bounced from lows seen over the past couple of sessions but we need to see if the bounce sustains of the rates fall back to lower levels in the coming week. USDINR may rise to 75.75/80 while above 75.50. USDJPY is ranged within 112-114
Dollar Index (96.175) is ranged within 95.50 and 96.50 and unless a break on either side is seen, there is lack of directional clarity on further movement.
Euro (1.1297) is holding below 1.1355 and could head towards 1.12 on the downside if 1.1355 holds as a strong resistance in the very near term. Broad range of 1.12-1.14 00/50may hold for now.
EURJPY (128.20) witnesses two way volatility within 129 and 127.9 over the last couple of sessions and need to see a sustained break on either side to give more clarity on direction from here. Till then we may expect trade within the broad 127.50 and 129.50 region.
Aussie (0.7151) has dipped from 0.72 as expected and can fall towards 0.71 or lower towards 0.70 in the near term. 0.70 is an important support below current levels.
Pound (1.3225) almost tested 1.3150 before bouncing sharply from there. Currently trading above 1.32, if the bounce sustains, it can rise further towards 1.33 before again coming off towards 1.32-1.3150.
Dollar-Yen (113.48) trades below 114 and looks likely to fall towards 113 or lower in the near term. The range of 112-114 may continue to hold for now.
USDCNY (6.3684) saw a sharp recovery, rising from 6.34 to 6.3780 yesterday. Two-way volatility is seen just now but view is ranged to bearish while below 6.39/43. While below 6.39, we do not negate a fall towards 6.30 soon.
{USDINR (75.5250) did not fall below 75.44 yesterday. We continue to look at 75.50 and 75.75/80 as important levels in the near term. Broad range of 75.20-75.75/80 and narrow range of 75.40-75.60/65 may hold for the day.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury yields have dipped at the far-end but still have room to move up within their respective ranges. The US CPI data release today will need a close watch to see how it can impact the yield movement. The German yields have reversed lower. This keeps the overall bearish view intact. A further fall is possible in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remained lower and stable. They can fall within their expected sideways range in the coming sessions.
The US 2Yr (0.69%) and 5Yr (1.27%) Treasury yields remain stable while the 10Yr (1.49%) and the 30Yr (1.87%) have fallen back. 1.4% (10Yr) and 1.8% (30Yr) are key near-term supports while above which the yields can rise to 1.65% (10Yr) and 2% (30Yr). We reiterate that 1.35%-1.65% (10Yr) and 1.7%-2% (30Yr) are the broad range of trade that we will be looking for now.
The German 2Yr (-0.72%), 5Yr (-0.60%), 10Yr (-0.36%) and 30Yr (-0.05%) have fallen-back after having risen sharply on Wednesday. The resistances at 0.05% (30Yr) and -0.25% (10Yr) have held very well as expected. This keeps our overall bearish view intact of seeing a fall to -0.45% / -0.5% (10Yr) and -0.1% / -0.2% (30Yr).
The Indian 10Yr (6.3483%) and 5Yr (5.6639%) remained lower and stable yesterday. We retain the view of seeing a dip to 6.3% (10Yr) and 5.63%-5.62% (5Yr) in the coming sessions. Broadly, 6.3%-6.4% and 5.62%-5.73% are the range of trade likely to be seen on the 10Yr and 5Yr GoIs respectively.
