STOCKS
Equities are mixed and somewhat look bearish. Dow has fallen sharply and needs to hold above 34000 to bounce back again, else a fall to 33000 is possible. Dax and Nikkei can test 15400 and 27000 before bouncing higher. Shanghai can fall from resistance near 3575. Nifty and Sensex look bearish too within the broad mentioned range.
Dow (34022.04, -461.68, -1.34%) has fallen sharply again. The index has strong support at 34000 which can hold for now and produce a bounce towards 34500\35000. Failure to bounce from 34000 can drag the index down towards 33000.
DAX (15472.67, +372.54, +2.47%) has risen sharply after seeing a low of 15187.09. While above 15400,the view is bullish to see a test of 15800/900 in the coming sessions.
Nikkei (27750.67, -184.95, -0.66%) has fallen today breaking below 28000. The index now has room to fall towards 27000 before we see a bounce again.
Shanghai (3571.30, -5.59, -0.16%) has fallen too. The index has interim resistance at 3575 which can hold for now and send the index to test 3550 and 3500 eventually. The expected rise to 3600 can be delayed if the index falls from 3575 immediately.
Nifty (17166.90, +183.70, +1.08%) opened higher and made a top at 17213.05 before closing at 17166.90. The index needs to sustain above 17100 and rise above 17200/250 to negate a fall towards 16500/16000. Broad view of 16800-17400 is still holding for the near term, a fall towards 16800 can be seen in the coming sessions.
Sensex (57684.79, +619.92, +1.09%) closed higher yesterday. Strong resistance can be seen at 58000 which can push the index down towards 57000/56000 in the coming sessions.
COMMODITIES
Crude prices fall ahead of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled today. Watch for a dip towards 68-65 on Brent and towards 64/63 on WTI. Other commodities trade in a range. Gold and Silver can trade within 1770-1820 and 22-24 respectively while Copper can fall to 4 before bouncing towards 4.45/50/60 levels in the medium term.
Brent (69.44) on the other hand has fallen below 70 and if that holds, a fall towards 68-65 looks possible soon.
WTI (66.16) has fallen to break below 67 and can now be headed towards 64/63.
Gold (1782) is stable and may continue to trade within 1770-1820.
Silver (22.43) is ranged and could trade within 22-24 region for now.
Copper (4.26820) fell to test 4.23 before bouncing from there. A sustained trade above 4.25 can take it higher to 4.50/60 else a fall to 4.00 is possible before the expected rise is seen.
FOREX
Dollar Index and Euro look stable just now and can be ranged within 95.50-96.50 and 1.12-1.14/1450 for the near term. Aussie is bearish on a break below 0.71 and could test 0.7050-0.6950 in the near term. Pound too can fall if it breaks below 1.33. Dollar Yen may trade within 113-114 region while USDINR can test upper levels of the 74.80/60-75.20/25 zone. USDCNY is bearish while below 6.40/39.
Dollar Index (95.948) fluctuated between 96.13 and 95.67 yesterday, holding above our mentioned support at 95.50. A break below 95.50 will be needed for the index to fall towards 95.40-95.00 on the downside. Else if the index manages to rise above 96.20/40, it can start moving up towards 97 and higher in the medium term. For now watch price action while above 95.50.
Euro (1.1335) is holding above support near 1.12 but has not been able to break above 1.14/1.1450 which is an immediate resistance zone. We expect 1.14-1.1450 to hold and produce a fall back to 1.12 or lower in the near term.
EURJPY (128.12) rose sharply from 128. As mentioned earlier, 128 is a crucial support which if holds can produce a rise towards 129-130 on the upside. Failure to hold above 128 can lead to a fresh fall towards 126/125 on the downside. For now, watch closely price action near 128.
Aussie (0.7148) fell sharply from 0.7173 seen yesterday. Immediate view looks bearish towards 0.7050-0.6950 before a bounce can be expected.
Pound (1.3303) looks stable just now. Any break below 1.33-1.3267/50, if seen again can take the Pound lower and signal fresh bearishness. Overall view is likely to see a bullish reversal from immediate support near 1.33-1.3267/50.
Dollar-Yen (113.05) may continue within a sideways range of 114-113 with chances of a fall to 112/111 in the medium term. View is sideways to bearish while below 114. A break above 114 is needed to bring back higher levels of 115-115.50 into focus.
USDCNY (6.3699) has bounced slightly from levels below 6.37 but the rise can be capped at 6.38/6.3815 before again resuming its fall towards 6.36/35 in the longer run. Below 6.39/40, view is bearish.
{USDINR (74.91) closed below 75 yesterday after testing an intra-day high of 75.02. We will keep a close watch to see if the pair attempts to rise back towards 75.20/25 or falls off towards 74.80/60 first. Above 75.20/25, higher resistances of 75.50/75 would come into focus.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury yields at the far-end (10Yr and 30Yr) have declined further and are coming closer to their crucial support. It will have to be seen if they can bounce-back from here to keep the broader sideways range intact or not. The German yields remain lower and keep our bearish view intact of seeing a further fall from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have bounced-back from their range supports and can continue to trade sideways for some more time.
The US 2Yr (0.57%) and the 5Yr (1.15%) remain lower and stable while the 10Yr (1.42%) and the 30Yr (1.75%) have declined further sharply. The 10Yr and approaching the crucial 1.4%-1.35% support zone while the 30Yr is already at the key level of 1.75%. It will have to be seen if the yields can bounce-back from here to keep the broader 1.35%-1.75% (10Yr) and 1.75%-2.1%/2.2% (30Yr) range intact. As mentioned yesterday, a break below these supports will be very bearish.
The German 2Yr (-0.73%) and 5Yr (-0.60%) yields have risen-back slightly while the 10Yr (-0.35%) and 30Yr (-0.06%) remain lower and stable. Our bearish view of seeing -0.45% / -0.5% on the 10Yr and -0.1% / -0.2% on the 30Yr remains intact.
The Indian 10Yr (6.3534%) and the 5Yr (5.6817%) have bounced back from near their range supports. This keeps the 6.3%-6.38% range on the 10Yr and 5.62%-5.7% on the 5Yr intact. A test of the upper end of these ranges looks likely now before the 10Yr and 5Yr reverses lower again.
