STOCKS
Equities continue to remain vulnerable. Dow has broken below 36000 and could be bearish towards 35000 in the near term while Dax is expected to remain ranged within 15900-16100 bot being immediate support and resistance levels. Nifty and Sensex can be headed lower if they sustain below 17800 and 60000 respectively. Nikkei has risen well above 29500 again and can be headed higher on a decisive break above 29750.Shanghai has immediate resistance at 3575 which needs to break in order to move up further.
Dow (35921.23, -158.71, -0.44%) has broken below 36000 and while the fall sustains, it can fall further towards 35000.
DAX (16083.11, +15.28, +0.095%) is trading in the range of 15900-16100 mentioned yesterday. 15900 is a good support which can produce a bounce towards 16400 eventually.
Nikkei (29612.21, +334.35, +1.14%) has risen sharply today re-entering levels above 29500. A rise above 29750 is needed to turn bullish towards 30000/31000 else a fall back to 29000 can be possible. Watch price action near 29750.
Shanghai (3530.86, -1.93, -0.055%) rose sharply and went up to test 3540.60 before coming down. The view is bullish while above 3500 to test 3575-3600. On the contrary, a break below 3500/3450 can take the index down towards 3400/3350.
Nifty (17873.60, -143.60, -0.80%) made an intraday low of 17798.20 before closing at 17886.70 yesterday as support near 17800 seems to have held well. A fall towards 17600/400 is possible if we see a break below 17800.
Sensex (59919.69, -433.13, -0.72%) has closed below the crucial level of 60000. While below 60000, a fall towards 59000/59500 is possible before we see a rise again in the medium term.
COMMODITIES
Most commodities trade higher and while above respective supports, the uptrend is likely to remain intact. Brent and WTI needs to sustain and bounce from supports near 82.08-81.66 and 80 respectively to rise towards 85+ and 83-84 in the near term. Gold looks bullish while above 1840 and can rise towards 1880-1925 on the upside. Silver has broken above 25 and can slowly rise towards 26-26.50. Copper needs to break above 4.45 to head higher else could remain within 4.25-4.45 for the near term.
Brent (82.43) has crucial support at $82.08-81.66 on the Daily Candles. We need to see if it triggers a rise past $85 to $90. While below $85, there could be chances of a break below $82 targeting $80. Very delicate juncture.
WTI (81.19) too has similar support at 80 which if holds can produce a bounce back to 83-84 in the near term and then eventually higher towards 85-86 but if the price falls below 80, it could be vulnerable for a sharp fall targeting 78-76 initially.
Gold (1860.30) attempted to again test 1870 yesterday before coming off from there. While above 1840, the upward movement may hold targeting 1880-1925 on the upside.
Silver (25.18) has risen well breaking above our expected 25. While the rise sustains above 25, the price can rise towards 26-26.50 soon. View is bullish above 25.
Copper (4.40) has risen well too but needs to break above 4.45 and sustain in order to move up further towards 4.55/60 in the medium term. For now, watch price action near 4.45.
FOREX
Dollar Index has risen sharply and could be headed towards 96 before reversing from there. Euro can test 1.14. EURJPY needs to hold above 130.50 to keep possibility of a sharp bounce from current levels. Aussie and Pound look bearish for the near term. Dollar Yen can be headed towards 115.50 while above 114. USDINR can fall while below resistance at 74.60/80 holds. Watch price action near 74.25, a break below which would trigger a fall to 73.80/50. USDCNY can be ranged within 6.41-6.38.
Dollar Index (95.229) has risen well breaking above 95 faster than expected. The index could be headed towards 96 soon. Watch if the index pauses at 96 to reverse from there or breaks higher.
Euro (1.1440) has been falling as expected and could head towards support at 1.14 before bouncing from there.
EURJPY (130.69) has bounced a bit while above 130.50. We need to see if the cross bounces higher to target 131-131.50 or remains stuck within the narrow 130.75-130.50 region and moves lower. For now support at 130.5 is holding.
Aussie (0.7285) continues to fall and looks bearish for a test of 0.7250-0.7240 which could act as a near term trend support and produce a decent bounce towards 0.73.
Pound (1.3358) is in a strong downtrend and could test support near 1.33 from where a bounce can be possible towards 1.3450.
Dollar-Yen (114.23) keeps the upmove intact while above 114 the pair is headed towards 115.50.
USDCNY (6.3959) has immediate Resistance at 6.41 which if holds can keep a sideways range of 6.41-6.38 for the near term.
USDINR (74.5225) has immediate resistance at 74.60 which is holding well for now. A dip is possible today and if the RBI allows a dip below 74.25, it can increase chances of a fall towards 73.80/50. Watch resistance at 74.60/80
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury yields have inched up further. Our view of seeing a rise in the near-term remains intact. Overall, we expect the Treasury yields to remain in a broad sideways range for some time. The German yields are witnessing their corrective rise in line with our expectation. There is room for further rise before the broader downtrend resumes. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen further and have room to move up more from here.
The US 2Yr (0.53%), 5Yr (1.25%), 10Yr (1.57%) and 30Yr (1.91%) have inched up further. As mentioned yesterday, the 10Yr can test 1.65% while above 1.5% and the 30Yr can rise to 2% and even 2.1% on a sustained rise above 1.9%. Broadly we are looking for a sideways range of 1.35%-1.65% on the 10Yr and 1.75%-2.1%/2.2% on the 30Yr.
The German 2Yr (-0.72%) and 10Yr (-0.24%) remains stable while the 5Yr (-0.52%) and 30Yr (0.07%) have moved up slightly. Our view of seeing a corrective rise to -0.2%/-0.1% on the 10Yr and 0.1% on the 30Yr remains intact. Thereafter a fresh fall can be seen to keep the broader downtrend intact.
The India 10Yr GoI (6.3675%) tested 6.37% as expected and can retest 6.4%-6.45% while it sustains above 6.35% now. On the weekly chart 6.3%-6.45% seems to be the possible range of trade for now.
The 5Yr GoI (5.7194%) has risen past 5.7% and can extend the rise to 5.74%-5.75% while it remains above 5.7%.
