GBPJPY’s decline may have recently taken a breather but bearish signals suggest the pair’s downward path may resume in the near-term. While the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) remains an upside defence for the positive structure, the slowing incline of the 100-period SMA and the fresh bearish crossover of it by the 50-period SMA, are hints that the bearish trend is gaining pace again.
The Ichimoku lines are indicating the pause in negative forces, while the short-term oscillators, which are conveying mixed messages in directional momentum, appear may soon side with the negative outlook. The MACD, although having recovered, remains in the negative area beneath its red trigger line, while the RSI is struggling to make progress in the bearish zone. More credence to the downside is being endorsed by the stochastic %K line, whose positive incline is starting to show signs of waning.
If sellers retake the lead, initial downside hindrance could arise from the 154.76 level and the 154.65 nearby trough, the former being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 149.21 until 158.20. Gliding lower, the bears may target the 50.0% Fibo of 153.71, where the 200-period SMA also resides, before tackling the 153.26-153.47 support border moulded over the mid-July to mid-August period. Successfully sinking the pair past these obstacles, sellers may then aim for the 152.56-152.84 boundary prior to the 152.08 barrier.
Otherwise, if buyers power up and push over the red Tenkan-sen line at 155.20, the next resistance could transpire from the 155.51-155.77 barrier. However, should the price overshoot this region and the adjacent blue Kijun-sen line, a fortified resistance zone may then develop between the 23.6% Fibo of 156.08 and the 156.48 high. Should buying interest persist and lift the price above the Ichimoku cloud, the adjoining 156.95-157.28 barricade could impede buyers reaching the 157.75 and 158.20 highs, the latter being a more than 5-year high.
Summarizing, GBPJPY is exhibiting a bearish demeanour below the Ichimoku lines and the 156.48 barrier.
