STOCKS
Equities are mixed. While Dow, Dax, Shanghai, Nifty and Sensex have reversed and bounced well after recent dips, Nikkei continues to fall and looks bearish for a few more sessions before a bounce is seen. Dow can rise to 34500-35000, Dax is bullish while above 15000. Shanghai is bullish while above 3500 and can rise towards 3600-3700 slowly. Nifty and Sensex look bullish within the broad range of 17600-18000 and 59000-60000 respectively.
Dow (34390.72, +90.73, +0.26%) has recovered a bit and while above 34000, there is scope for a rise to 34500-35000 on the upside. We do not negate a possible fall to 34000-33900/500 too and need confirmation to negate such a fall on a rise above 35000.
DAX (15365.27, +116.71, +0.77%) has bounced well and while above 15200, it can rise to test 15500-15600 before again falling back towards 15000-15200 on the downside.
Nikkei (29433.68, -110.61, -0.37%) has fallen further today and could test 29000-28500 before rising again from there in the longer run.
Shanghai (3550.52, +14.22, +0.41%) has moved up slightly. While above 3500, there is scope for a slow rise to 3600 and eventually towards 3700.
Nifty (17711.30, -37.30, -0.21%) mostly traded in a narrow range yesterday. The range of 17600-17800 mentioned yesterday is holding well for now. If Nifty breaks below 17600 then we can see a fall towards 17400-17200-17000 levels, else a slow rise from current levels towards 18000/250 is possible soon.
Sensex (59413.27, -254.33, -0.43%) has risen slowly yesterday. View is to see a steady rise towards the level of 60000 now, but could be faced by interim rejections towards 59000.
COMMODITIES
Crude prices have come off but we need more downside for confirmation of a top. Brent needs to break below 76 and WTI below 74 to indicate downside. Any break above 80 on Brent and 76 on WTI can have scope for a test of 82.50-83 and 78 respectively. Gold can still test 1700 before bouncing from there. Silver has broken below crucial support at 22 and if it does not see an immediate bounce from 21, it can plunge further down. Copper is stuck within the 4.0-4.40 range and can fall towards 4.10/4.00 before rising back.
Brent (77.96) has continued to fall while WTI (74.83) has risen a bit. As mentioned yesterday, a fall below 76 and 74 respectively will confirm that a top is possibly in place and we may look for lower targets in the coming sessions. While below 80 and 76/77, view is bearish for a test of 75-70 on Brent and 72-71 on WTI in the medium term. Any break above 80 on Brent and 76/77 on WTI can take the price higher towards 82.50/83 and 78 respectively.
Gold (1732.20) fell to test 1726 before rising back from there. It needs to break above 1740 and sustain higher to negate a possible fall to the lower end of the 1725-1700 range. Else we continue to look for a test of 1700 before a bounce towards 1760/80 or higher is seen. .
Silver (21.53) has broken below our mentioned support near 22.50-22.0. This is crucial and no immediate support is visible below current levels. We will have to wait for a reversal signal.
Copper (4.2030) has dipped sharply and can test 4.10/00 before bouncing back towards 4.30/40 again. Overall ranged view may continue to hold.
FOREX
Dollar trades sharply higher as it break above our expected resistance at 94. Euro has been dragged lower to 1.16, which can break and fall to 1.15-1.14 as the Dollar seems to be heading towards 95. EURJPY has been dragged down too and can fall to 129.50-129 in the near term. Pound and Aussie look bearish. USDCNY is stable within 6.48-6.45/44. USDINR has scope to rise to 74.50.
Dollar Index (94.2650) tested 94.432 yesterday and has just come off a bit. This has been contrary to our expected resistance near 93.80-94.00 to hold. While the index trades above 94, there is scope for a rise towards 95 on the upside.
Euro (1.1607) has tested 1.1589 and has come down as per our expectation of a fall. Failure to hold above 1.16 can drag down Euro further towards 1.15-1.14 as Dollar Index heads higher towards 95. (Get our Euro monthly report for October’21 here: https://kshitij.com/eurusd-forecast-payment-details/oct-21 )
EURJPY (129.80) has been pulled down by a weaker Euro as resistance near 130.50 has also held well. A fall to 129.50-129 looks likely soon.
Dollar-Yen (111.83) had already showed sharp upmove before the Dollar Index broke above 94. The pair has tested 112 and may find difficulty in breaking on the upside just now. We may expect a short corrective fall to 111.50-111 before rising higher. A rise in Dollar Index towards 95 can take USDJPY above 112 soon.
Aussie (0.7204) fell to 0.7170 yesterday before bouncing back slightly from there. Failure to hold the bounce can bring the rate down to 0.71 in the near term. To negate further downside, Aussie has to break above 0.7225-0.7250 and rise higher.
Pound (1.3450) fell further to 1.34 today and can fall further towards 1.3320. Else an immediate bounce from current levels is needed for the Pound to move up towards 1.36. While the US Dollar trades strong, Pound may decline further.
USDCNY (6.4667) looks stable and could range within 6.48-6.45/44 for some more time.
USDINR (74.1525) tested interim resistance at 74.25 but the sharp rise in US Dollar indicates a possible rise to 74.50 on the upside before any rejection sets in. Immediate view is bullish.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. As mentioned yesterday, we see limited upside from here with strong resistances ahead. We expect the yields to remain below these resistances and reverse lower in the coming days. The German yields sustain higher and can move up in the near-term before turning down. The 5Yr and 10Yr GoI are hovering above their key supports which if broken can drag them lower in the coming days and negate the chances of seeing any further rise.
The US 2Yr (0.29%), 5Yr (0.99%), 10Yr (1.51%) and the 30Yr (2.05%) Treasury yields have dipped slightly. 1.6% on the 10Yr and 2.1%-2.2% on the 30Yr are likely to be a cap on the upside for now. As mentioned yesterday, we expect the yields to reverse lower and see a fresh fall either from current levels itself or after an extended rise to test the above mentioned resistances.
The German 2Yr (-0.70), 5Yr (-0.56%), 10Yr (-0.21%) and 30Yr (0.25%) yields remain higher and stable. The outlook is bullish. The 30Yr can rise to 0.3%-0.35% while it sustains above 0.2%. The 10Yr has an immediate resistance at -0.20% and can rise to -0.1% on a break above it. Thereafter a fresh fall is possible.
The Indian 10Yr GoI (6.2056%)has dipped yesterday. But while above 6.2% there is still scope to test 6.25%-6.26% before coming-off again. A strong break below 6.2% from here is needed to negate the above mentioned rise and drag the yield lower to 6.15%-6.10% again.
The 5Yr GoI (5.6471%) has an immediate support at 5.64% which if broken can take the yield lower to 5.6%-5.55% again. While 5.64% holds, a consolidation between 5.64%-5.68%/5.70% can be seen for some time.
