AUDUSD was unsuccessful in piercing the 0.7300 level late on Wednesday but resilient enough to hold above the familiar base of 0.7230, where the bulls found some footing in the last week of August and market actions paused in the second half of 2020.
The RSI and the MACD have yet to show any convincing improvement, with the former maintaining its downward pattern from the start of September comfortably below its 50 neutral mark despite its latest upturn, and the latter extending its negative momentum below its zero and signal lines. Hence, there is not sufficient evidence yet that the sell-off has found a bottom.
Nevertheless, if the price manages to bounce off 0.7230, the former support region of 0.7325 could play a resistance role with the help of the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs), which are hovering around the same location. Beyond that, the bulls will need a green pass around the 0.7400 barrier in order to gear up to September’s ceiling of 0.7477.
Otherwise, another negative extension to the three-week decline could last until the 9-month low of 0.7105. Cracking that floor would further amplify losses, likely bringing the Autumn 2020 support of 0.7021 next into view, while deeper, the spotlight may turn to the 0.6920 restrictive territory.
In summary, AUDUSD still appears to be under bearish control despite the recent consolidation in the price, with confirmation awaited below 0.7230
