STOCKS
Dow and Dax trade sharply lower. Failure to rise from 34750 and 15500 respectively can indicate medium term bearishness for both. Watch price action near mentioned supports in the next few sessions. Nifty and Sensex are consolidating between 17250-17500 and 58000-59000 respectively. A break on either side is needed to form the next view. Nikkei has come down slightly but while above 30,000 the view is bullish to see a test of 30600\700 on the upside. Shanghai is heading towards 3700 levels.
Dow (35031.07, -68.93, -0.20%) has continued to fall and if it does not bounce back immediately from 35000, it can fall further towards 34750 in the near term before attempting to rise from there.
DAX (15610.28, 232.81, -1.47%) fell sharply breaking below 15800, contrary to our expectation.15600/500 seems likely to hold but if the index fails to see a bounce immediately, it can fall below 15500 indicating medium term bearishness.
Nifty(17353.50, -8.60, 0.050%) is holding between the range of 17250-17500 mentioned previously.A strong break on either side will determine the next move.A strong break above 17500 can take it to 17800 in the coming sessions while a break below 17000 can take the index to 17000-16800.
Sensex(58250.26, -29.22, -0.050%) has been consolidating between 58000-59000.A strong break on either side is needed to make the next view.
Nikkei(30,041.33, -139.88, -0.46%) has come down today but is trading above 30000.While above 30000 the view is bullish to see a test of 30600\700.If Nikkei fails to sustain above 30000 then a pullback towards 29000 and even 28500 is possible in the coming days.
Shanghai(3674.71, -47, -0.013%) has risen today and is heading towards 3700.A test of 3700-3800 is possible in the coming days.
COMMODITIES
Commodities have fallen sharply on sharp rise in Dollar Index. Crude prices can fall in the near term while below resistances near 74 (Brent) and 70 (WTI). Gold has fallen sharply below 1800 and can test 1780/65 before bouncing back from there. Silver has held below 25 and can trade within 23.50-25 for the near term. Copper may test 4.20-4.00 before bouncing back in the medium term.
Brent (71.683) and WTI (68.59) have fallen and looks bearish for the near term for a possible fall towards 67.50 and 65 respectively while immediate respective resistances at 74 and 70 hold.
Gold (1799.16) fell sharply from 1833 instead of rising above 1840 proving 1840 to be an immediate and decent resistance. While below 1800 now, we may have to allow for a further fall towards 1780/65 before a bounce is seen again.
Silver (24.33) has held below resistance at 25, negating an immediate possibility of a rise to 26. A range of 23.50-25 may hold for the near to medium term.
Copper (4.2805) too fell sharply holding below 4.40. A test of 4.20 is possible in the next few sessions before a bounce is seen. Failure to bounce from 4.20 can drag it lower towards 4.00.
FOREX
Dollar Index has risen sharply dragging down Euro below 1.1850. Euro is bearish towards 1.18.Aussie and Pound looks bearish in the near term. EURJPY is stuck in a sideways range but may soon bounce on the upside. USDCNY can rise towards 6.47/48 in the near term. USDINR can test 73.80-74 before falling off from there. Overall currencies are weak against the US Dollar.
Dollar Index (92.678) is rising and may test 93.0-93.20 on the upside before falling off from there.
Euro (1.1821) continues to fall further and can dip to 1.18 in the near term. Immediate view is bearish.
EURJPY (130.31) is stable below 130.75 and can trade between 130-130.75/131 region in the near term. After the current sideways correction, an eventual rise towards 132 is possible.
Dollar-Yen (110.22) fell from 110.50 and could test 110-109.50 in the medium term before bouncing back from there.
Aussie (0.7369) fell sharply and holds below 0.75-0.7480 and we may expect a dip to 0.7350 or even to 0.73 in the near to medium term.
Pound (1.3777) rose sharply from 1.3726 and while above 1.37, the Pound can trade between 1.39-1.37 region for a few sessions. A bounce from 1.37 is likely for the near term.
USDCNY (6.4612) has dipped a bit but while above 6.45 it can trade between 6.47-6.45 region for a few sessions. A break above 6.47 can take the pair higher to 6.48/49 in the medium term.
USDINR (73.6075) rose sharply breaking above 73.40/60 and has scope to rise towards 73.80-74.00 in the near term before a corrective fall is seen from there. Watch at decent resistance near 73.80-74.0.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury yields have dipped at the far-end. Supports are just below current levels while above which our view of seeing a near-term rise will remain intact before a sustained reversal is seen. The German yields remain stable ahead of the ECB meeting today. We see room for rise in the near-term before the broader downtrend resumes. We will have to wait and see what the ECB has in plate for the yields. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have resistances ahead which will have to be broken in order to move up strongly. While the resistances hold, a fresh fall is possible in the coming days.
The US 2Yr (0.22%) and the 5Yr (0.81%) Treasury yields remain stable while the 10Yr (1.33%) and the 30Yr (1.95%) have dipped slightly. 1.3% (10Yr) and 1.9% (30Yr) are important immediate supports while above which our view of seeing a rise to 1.4%-1.45% (10Yr) and 2%-2.1% (30Yr) will remain intact. Only a break below 1.3% (10Yr) and 1.9% (30Yr) will bring the yields under pressure for a deeper fall.
The German 2Yr (-0.70), 5Yr (-0.64%), 10Yr (-0.33%) and 30Yr (0.16%) yields remain stable ahead of the ECB meeting today. For now we retain our view of seeing a test of -0.30%/-0.25% (10Yr) and 0.20% (30Yr) and then see a reversal to resume the broader downtrend. We will have to wait and watch the outcome of the ECB meeting today.
The Indian 10Yr GoI (6.1878%) tested 6.2% and has come-off to close lower. Inability to break 6.2% can drag the 10Yr down to 6.15%-6.14% in the near-term without seeing a rise to 6.22% mentioned yesterday. On the 5Yr GoI (5.6135%), the resistance at 5.64% is holding well. It can come under pressure if it breaks below 5.6% for a fall to 5.55%-5.5%. We will have to wait and watch.
