AUDUSD has moved back into a neutral phase following a strong rebound off 0.7807 in mid-August. The pair is struggling to sustain gains and paused its recent rise just below the key 0.8000 level. While the overall medium-term market structure remains bullish, the shorter-term view is for a consolidation phase between 0.7865 and 0.8000.
Momentum signals are mixed but mostly neutral. Both RSI and MACD remain in their respective bullish territory. Meanwhile, the moving averages are positively aligned after the crossover of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA. These factors give a broadly bullish technical picture and there are no signs yet of a change in the uptrend from 0.7328 to 0.8065 (May to July rise).
There is scope to extend higher if momentum picks up. A sustained break of strong resistance at 0.8000 could see a re-test of the July 27 high at 0.8065 and from this point the odds rise for a resumption of the uptrend to target the next major high at 0.8162.
To the downside, immediate support is expected at around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 0.7328 to 0.8065, at 0.7888. Below this, AUDUSD would likely come under pressure to drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7780. A move below the 50% Fibonacci at 0.7695 would indicate a change in the medium-term bullish bias.
Based on the current market structure, the near-term remains neutral and the medium-term is bullish.
