Key Highlights
- NZD/USD remained well bid above the 0.7100 support.
- It climbed higher above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.7175 on the 4-hours chart.
- New Zealand’s unemployment rate dropped from 4.9% to 4.7% in Q1 2021.
- Crude oil price remains elevated and it surpassed the $65.00 resistance.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
After a strong decline, the New Zealand Dollar found support near 0.7110 against the US Dollar. NZD/USD started a fresh increase and it climbed above the 0.7150 resistance.
Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair started a decent upward move from the 0.7115 swing low and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.7175.
There was also a close above the 0.7150 level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). It cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7286 high to 0.7115 low.
An immediate resistance is near the 0.7245 level. It is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7286 high to 0.7115 low. A successful close above the 0.7245 level could lead the pair towards the 0.7286 high.
Any more gains may possibly push the pair towards the 0.7350 level. On the downside, the 0.7180 level is a key support. The main support sits at 0.7150, below which the pair is likely to accelerate lower towards the 0.7115 swing low. The next major support sits at 0.7100.
Fundamentally, the New Zealand Unemployment rate for Q1 2021 was released yesterday by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was looking for no change from 4.9%.
The actual result was better than the forecast, as the unemployment rate declined from 4.9% to 4.7% in Q1 2021. Besides, the employment change was 0.6%, better than the forecast of 0.2%.
Overall, NZD/USD could gain pace if it clears the 0.7245 resistance zone. Looking at EUR/USD, the pair could decline heavily if there is a close below 1.2000.
Economic Releases
- Euro Zone Retail Sales for March 2021 (YoY) – Forecast +9.6%, versus -2.9% previous.
- Euro Zone Retail Sales for March 2021 (MoM) – Forecast +1.5%, versus +3.0% previous.
- BOE Interest Rate Decision – Forecast 0.1%, versus 0.1% previous.
- US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 540K, versus 553K previous.
