GBPJPY propelled exponentially following the break above the bullish channel, but its ascent looks to be in jeopardy now after the peak at an almost three-year high of 150.42 on Thursday.
Notably, the price is set to close below the red Tenkan-sen line at 148.36, which has been a strong supporter since the start of the year, while the momentum indicators seem to be a bit discouraging about whether the bulls may take the wheel soon. Particularly, the falling RSI looks to have created a bearish double top pattern below a restrictive line and within the overbought territory before pulling out of the region, while the MACD, although above its red signal line, seems to be losing steam.
If the 147.45 barrier gives way, the door would open for the key 146.35 level, where the upper surface of the broken channel and a former support region coincide. The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) is also in the neighborhood, therefore any violation at this point could trigger the next downside correction, likely bringing the 145.00 – 144.00 region next into focus.
Alternatively, a bounce above the 149.67 bar would shift attention towards the dashed resistance trendline seen around 151.30. Beyond that, the 152.50 handle, which had been an active obstacle during the 2017 – 2018 period, could be the next target.
In the medium-term picture, the market structure remains positive as long as the price trades above 142.69. The upward-sloping SMAs are an encouraging sign that the uptrend has still some life in it.
Summarizing, GBPJPY is expected to remain under pressure in the near-term, especially if the 147.45 number proves easy to pierce on the downside.
