USDJPY is stubbornly pushing for a close below December’s 103.00 support area, which managed to keep the bears in check for the third consecutive day on Monday despite the slide to a fresh eight-month low of 102.70.
The durable negative market structure navigated by the descending channel stretched into the new year, while the negative slope in the RSI and the red Tenkan-sen line is another indication that robust bullish pressures will likely come with some delay.
A successful break below 103.00 could open the door for the important 102.26 support region, where the market staged its impressive rally back in March. Lower, there is no key obstacle in sight until the 101.17 bottom, which was also active during the 2013 – 20116 period.
On the upside, the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 103.64 remains the threshold for an extension towards the 50-day SMA and the upper boundary of the channel. Some congestion could also emerge within the 104.30 – 104.70 zone and the Ichimoku Cloud before a steeper increase to 105.66 takes place.
In brief, USDJPY continues to face negative risks in the short- and medium-term picture, where a significant step below 103.00 is expected to test the 102.26 barrier.
