STOCKS
Dow (22092.81, +0.30%) has moved up in line with our expectation and could move face slight rejection near 22200 before again moving up towards 22500.
Dax (12297.72, +1.18%) has bounced sharply from support near 12100 and while that holds, a test of 12400-12500 seems possible.
Shanghai (3260.96, -0.03%) has been coming off from resistance near 3300 as expected and is headed towards our 3240 in the coming sessions.
Nikkei (20078.12, +0.63%) remains stable and could bounce back from levels near 19900 towards 20100 in the next few sessions.
Nifty (10066.40, +0.53%) could test 9940/30 before again heading towards 10200. Overall immediate trade is seen within 10200-9930 levels.
COMMODITIES
Failure to rise above the resistance of 1270-75 has dragged Gold (1258) down as it test the immediate support of 1258 below which comes 1245. As discussed last week, in case the Support at 1245 breaks, there will be a further dip to 1230 and 1210 levels respectively.
Silver (16.2540) has broken the support of 16.50 and achieved the initial target of 16.20 already with the next target 15.90 not too far away. Immediate resistance comes at 16.50 and trading below that, Silver may decline to 15.60-30 levels.
Copper (2.88) is consolidating at the higher levels in the narrow range of 2.85-92 but it may soon resume the larger uptrend for the higher levels of 3.00-12. Immediate support comes at 2.78.
Brent (52.36) and WTI (49.57) are testing the upper ends of their respective ranges of 48-53 and 47.60-50.50 respectively. The bullish stance remains unchanged as long as they are trading above 48.70 and 45.50 levels on a weekly closing basis.
FOREX
Better than expected US NFP data triggered short covering in Dollar Index (93.49) from 92.50, short of our downside target of 92.00 but unless a weekly closing above 94.10-40 is seen, the downside risks remain open. Euro (1.1794) has entered a corrective phase after hitting a high near 1.19 but if the correction remains limited to 1.1600 levels, then the larger uptrend may resume after a few sessions.
Dollar-Yen (110.71) is oscillating in the range of 109.30-111.10 as expected and it make continue to do so for another couple of sessions before attempting a breakout for a trending move.
Pound (1.3052) has confirmed the August high of 1.3266 as the near term high and may decline further towards 1.2950-30 in the next few sessions.
Aussie (0.7942) shows no change as it trades horizontally in the range of 0.7875-0.8050 which may continue for a few more sessions. Repeat – the larger trend remains up and the higher targets of 0.8100-70 remain unchanged.
Dollar Rupee (63.58) is trading at 63.74 in the NDF following the better than expected US NFP data but any corrective bounce may be expected to face selling pressure in the region of 63.90-64.10. Immediate resistance comes around 63.76.
INTEREST RATES
The UK yields are headed to lower levels and could move down in the near term. The 5YR (0.56%), 10Yr (1.18%) and the 20YR (1.71%) may test 0.50%, 1.12% and 1.65% respectively in the coming sessions.
The Japan yields look bullish for the near term. The 10Yr (0.07%) could move up towards 0.08% in the next few sessions.
The US yields are almost stable and could move up slightly. The 10Yr (2.27%) may test 2.32% while the 5YR (1.82%) could come up to 1.89%.
The German-US 10YR (-1.80%) could come off towards -1.85% bring down Euro with itself by this week. While the yield spread moves lower Euro could see some dip towards 1.16. (Refer to FOREX section above)
