The NFP with Average Hourly Earnings data will be the most important today for the EUR/USD currency. The ADP missed the forecast (178k vs 187k) but it was revised higher – 191k. It implies that the NFP might not be the most important data today, but rather it will be the wage data. However, traders should be paying attention to both as the NFP might come close to 180k due to a lot of seasonal work, for tourism.
Technical analysis is showing a clear narrowing channel with a trend line that might become an inner trend line if broken to the upside. An upside break of 1.1890 should target 1.1905, 1.1932 and 1.1958. However if the price gets below the channel than POC 1.1835-50 (D L4, W H4, EMA89, ATR pivot) and/or POC2 1.1800-1.1810 ( W H3, ATR low, D L5) should provide potential rejections. The pair is still in uptrend so buying the dips could happen should the price retrace to POC zones.
Bulls should keep 1.1795 intact, as if it breaks it might be a signal for a potential reversal down to 1.1700.
