STOCKS
Dow (22016.24, +0.24%) is moving up slowly and could test 22100-22250 in the near term from where a short corrective dip is possible. Immediate trend is up.
Dax (12181.48, -0.57%) lost most of the gains seen in the previous session but is trading above 12080 just now. Near term trade could possibly continue in the 12450-12080 region for a few more sessions.
Shanghai (3285.26, +0.01%) is trading below the near term resistance at 3300. While that holds, we may expect some sideways consolidation if not an immediate fall towards 3250. Some downward correction is preferred just now before it resumes its rally.
Nikkei (20004.00, -0.38%) looks choppy just now and is almost ranged sideways unable to decide on which direction to take. We will have to wait for more clarity while the sideways consolidation continues.
Nifty (10081.50, -0.33%) closed below 10100, after facing rejection from resistance at levels just below 10150. While the correction continues, we could see a test of 9950 before again heading towards 10100 levels.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1263) is trading within the range of 1245-75. It has a crucial Support at 1245. If that holds, we can see a rise towards 1275. Recent sideways move had helped Gold to get out of its short term overbought territory but it has to close above 1275 regions to keep the bullish momentum intact. Silver (16.55) somehow manages to hold above 16.50 levels, but a close below 16.50 could open up 16.20 and 15.90 levels respectively. As of now, Silver has been well supported by the recent surge in copper prices but we might see drastic fall in Silver if there will be any short term price correction in Copper.
Copper (2.89) looks on a firm footing while it is trading above 2.78 levels. Immediate resistance poised at 2.92-95 levels and the midterm resistance comes at 3.12 regions from where we may see some correction due to profit taking.
6th consecutive week of fall (-1.5M B) in U.S oil inventory, which could be supportive for the entire energy pack. Brent (52.20) is out of its midterm bearish channel as it is trading above 51.30 regions. Immediate resistance comes at 53 levels and a close above that could open up 56 as well. WTI (49.46) is also moved higher and a close above 51 could be the end of midterm bearish trend in WTI too. We will remain bullish on Brent and WTI, while they are trading above 48.70 and 45.50 levels on a weekly closing basis.
FOREX
Fed speakers reiterating caution over further interest rate hikes keeps Dollar weak while Rupee crashes below the 4-month floor of 64.
Dollar Index (92.96) has been declining in a very narrow channel and despite the minor recovery following the fresh low at 92.54; it needs a break above 93.20-50 to signal at least a pause. The downside target of 92.00 remains unchanged. Euro (1.1845) has hit a high above 1.19 already and the target of 1.20 looks just like matter of time with the current momentum. If the US NFP data comes weak on Friday, Dollar may decline towards 92 and Euro may surge towards 1.20.
Dollar-Yen (110.67) has tested tour resistance of 111.00-10 but failure to rise above it can drag the pair down towards 109.50 once more.
Pound (1.3217) has not moved in the last session at all waiting for the BOE decision today. View remains unchanged. Repeat – if the current pause phase stays limited to 1.3170 to the downside, the bullish momentum remains intact which may take it to 1.3330 and even 1.3420.
Aussie (0.7932) continues its corrective mode. While it may be too early to say but a consolidation in the form of a Triangle in the range of 0.7875-0.8050 for a few sessions looks like a fair possibility. Higher targets of 0.8100-70 will be negated only on a break below 0.7875.
As a result of the RBI meet, Dollar Rupee (63.70) crashed below 64.00, exactly in line with our expectations. 64.00-10 may limit any corrective bounce now as Dollar Rupee may decline to 63.55 and then 63.30-25 in the next few sessions.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields continue to fall. The 5Yr (1.82%), 10Yr (2.26%) and the 30Yr (2.85%) are all trading lower from previous levels of 1.83%, 2.29% and 2.87% respectively. There could be some recovery in the coming sessions.
The US-Japan 10YR (2.19%) is testing near term support at current levels and could bounce back towards 2.31% soon.
The German-Us 10Yr (-1.78%) could come down towards -1.84% in the near term before again bouncing back to current levels while the German-Us 2Yr (-2.05%) is testing support at current levels and could bounce back just now.
