GBPAUD has been in a downtrend since May 10 when it touched a ten-month high of 1.7650. Despite the pair climbing for the fourth consecutive day, the bearish short-term and medium-term picture is still intact according to the technical indicators.
The pair dipped further into bearish territory on July 11 when the pair crossed below the Ichimoku cloud and the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), cementing the short-term negative momentum. An additional bearish evidence arises from the RSI and the MACD, which are currently trending below 50 and 0 respectively.
Should the pair head up, a resistance would be first found at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 1.6570 of the upleg from 1.5902 to 1.7650 (March-May). From that point, a barrier to upside movements would be met at the Kinjun-sen point of 1.6694, while further increases would target the 50% Fibonacci of 1.6775, which is also close to the 50-day EMA line.
Alternatively, if the pair moves downwards, an immediate support would be provided by the 78.6% Fibonacci mark of 1.6274 which also acted as a support on July 20. From here, any declines would shift the focus to the psychological level of 1.6100, whereas a break below the swing-low of 1.5902 (March 16) would bring a resumption of the longer-term downtrend.
Looking at the medium-term picture, the outlook is bearish as well, as prices have been making lower highs and lower lows for the past three months. Moreover, the bearish cross between the 50-day and the 200-day EMA on June 19 and the fact that both lines are currently sloping negatively reinforce the bearish medium-term outlook.
