GBPJPY appears stalled at the 134.45 barrier – that being the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 144.94 to 123.97, following the latest deflection on the upper Bollinger band. The present conflicting slopes of the 50- and 100-period simple moving averages (SMAs) and the mostly horizontal bearing of the 200-day SMA, reflect the neutral tone that exists in the pair.
At this point in time, the short-term oscillators reflect no clear direction in the price. The MACD, in the negative zone, is just above its red signal line, while the rising RSI is marginally below the neutral threshold.
Should buyers manage to push over the 100-period SMA at 135.19 and the nearby obstacle of 135.30, the price may jump to face the critical 136.14 – 136.33 resistance zone. Conquering this resistance trench – that encompasses the upper Bollinger band and the 50-period SMA – may bring into play the 61.8% Fibo of 136.93 and the 137.40 peak above. Another rally higher may then target the 138.23 barrier.
To the downside, falling below the 50.0% Fibo of 134.45 could test the lower Bollinger band at 133.84. Slightly underneath, the key trough of 133.49 and the 200-period SMA could provide adequate support to bring the decline to a halt. Should additional losses unfold, the price may then challenge the 133.07 border, which if broken could turn the focus to the 38.2% Fibo at 132.00 and the low of 131.77.
In brief, the short-term bias exhibits a neutral bearing for now, with a break either above 136.33 or below the 133.49 needed to build a new direction.
