AUDUSD appears to have stalled between the 0.6449 level – that being the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 0.7031 to 0.5506 – and the 50.0% Fibo of 0.6268, after the latest shove up reversed ahead of the falling trend line, drawn from December 31. The price is gaining above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), mirroring a pickup in positive momentum within the short-term oscillators.
The MACD, in the positive region, looks to increase further above its red trigger line, while the RSI is rising from the 50 neutral mark. Moreover, the price is above the mid-Bollinger band and the 50-day SMA, though traders need to keep in mind the predominant negative signals from the downward sloping SMAs.
If sellers resurface, an immediate hardened support region from the 50-day SMA of 0.6288 until the 0.6212 inside swing high of March 31, which encapsulates the 50.0% Fibo of 0.6268, the low of 0.6253 and the mid-Bollinger respectively, could provide a base to terminate further declines. Conquering this fortified border, the price may plunge for the 38.2% Fibo of 0.6090 and the 0.5979 trough, where the lower Bollinger band is located, before testing the 23.6% Fibo of 0.5866.
Otherwise, continuing gains could initially find resistance at the 0.6396 nearby high and the descending line ahead of the 61.8% Fibo of 0.6449. Breaching the latest peak, the upper Bollinger band at 0.6500 could deny the climb from reaching the 100-day SMA of 0.6556 and resistance structure from 0.6656 to 0.6684, where the 200-day SMA lies.
Summarizing, the short-term bias remains bearish below the restrictive trend line. Yet, with the sideways current mode, a break clearing above 0.6449 or below 0.6253 could reveal the next direction.
