Key Highlights
- Gold price traded to a new multi-year high at $1,747 and remains in a strong uptrend.
- A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $1,700 on the 4-hours chart of XAU/USD.
- Hurdles on the upside are $1,750, $1,765, $1,780 and $1,800.
- The US Initial Jobless Claims are likely to decline from 6606K to 5100K for the week ending April 11, 2020.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
This month, gold price restarted its rise and surged above the $1,650 resistance against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum above the $1,700 level and extended its rise.
The 4-hours chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price remained well bid above the $1,700 pivot level, the 200 simple moving average (4-hours, green), and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).
Gold price traded to a new multi-year high $1,747 and it is currently consolidating gains. It corrected below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent rise from the $1,642 swing low to $1,747 high.
On the downside, there is a strong support forming near the $1,700 level. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $1,700 on the same chart.
The trend line coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent rise from the $1,642 swing low to $1,747 high. Therefore, a downside break below the trend line might push the price back towards the $1,665 and $1,650 support levels.
On the upside, an initial resistance is near the $1,750 level, above which the bulls are likely to aim $1,765 or $1,780 in the coming days.
Fundamentally, the US Retail Sales report for March 2020 was released by the US Census Bureau. The market was looking for an 8% decline in sales compared with the previous month.
The actual result was disappointing, as the US Retail Sales declined 8.7%. Besides, the last reading was revised from -0.5% to -0.4%.
The report added:
Food and beverage stores were up 28.0 percent (±0.9 percent) from March 2019, while clothing and clothing accessories stores were down 50.7 percent (±1.8 percent) from last year.
Overall, gold price is likely to remain well bid above $1,700. Conversely, EUR/USD and GBP/USD started showing a few bearish signs and likely to decline in the near term.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
- German Consumer Price Index for March 2020 (YoY) – Forecast +1.4%, versus +1.4% previous.
- German Consumer Price Index for March 2020 (MoM) – Forecast +0.1%, versus +0.1% previous.
- US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 5100K, versus 6606K previous.
- US Housing Starts March 2020 (MoM) – Forecast 1.300M, versus 1.599M previous.
- US Building Permits March 2020 (MoM) – Forecast 1.300M, versus 1.452M previous.
