GBPAUD’s new found confidence has pushed the price above the 1.9725 resistance and to the flat blue Kijun-sen line. The latest upside price action is also reflected in the upwards turn in the Tenkan-sen line as well as the short-term momentum indicators.
The MACD, in the negative area, continues to increase above its red trigger line, while the RSI has succeeded to overstep its neutral mark. However, the Ichimoku lines maintain a bearish bearing, as do the downward sloping 50- and 100-period simple moving averages (SMAs). Moreover, the recent bearish crossover of the 200-period SMA by the 50-period one could see the price retract back down.
To the downside, the 1.9725 level could initially limit the down move ahead of the red Tenkan-sen line at 1.9650. With further negative pressures, the 1.9580 low and 1.9514 key trough of March 24 could step to the plate, to impede the descent. Fracturing the 1.9514 barrier may see the price come to test the supportive trend line drawn from the 1.7791 low of September 3. Persistent bears could then face the 1.9405 hurdle ahead of another supportive trend line drawn from the 1.7559 low of July 30.
If buyers control the market, initial resistance could come at the 1.9848 inside swing low. A push above could see the price tackle the 50-period SMA at 1.9886 ahead of the restrictive trend line – pulled from the 2.0591 high – and the 200-period SMA at 1.9916. Overcoming the descending line, the surface of the Ichimoku cloud and the swing high of 1.9990, coupled with the 100-period SMA, could apply significant friction ahead of the 2.0117 – 2.0156 area of resistance.
Overall, the near-term bias remains bearish below 1.9990 and a close below the 1.9514 mark could boost the bearish picture.
