STOCKS
Global indices manage to sustain higher and keeps alive the chances of seeing a rise in the near-term although there seems to be lack of strength and confidence. Dow has bounced again and keeps alive the chances of a near-term rise. DAX seems to lack strength but can rise if it manages to sustain above its support. Nikkei is hovering below a key resistance which has to be broken for it to move higher. Shanghai remains relatively stronger than the others in the lot and looks bullish. Sensex and Nifty have come-off from their key resistances and looks vulnerable for a fall within the preferred range.
Dow (23433.57, +779.71, +3.44%) has bounced again and keeps alive the chances of seeing the near-term rise to 24200-24500 that we had been mentioning for some time. 22500 can be a good support while above which the above mentioned upmove is possible. From a bigger picture as mentioned yesterday, Dow needs to hold above 21000 to avoid any fresh fall.
DAX (10332.89, −23.81, -0.23%) seems to be lacking a strong follow-through buying although it sustains above 10100. The index will need a close watch for a few sessions to see if it gains momentum or not. While above 10100, the bias is bullish to see a rise to 11000 in the near-term. We will have to wait and watch.
Nikkei (19274.21, −79.03, -0.41%) is hovering below the crucial near-term resistance level of 19500. As mentioned earlier, a strong rise past 19500 (most preferred) is needed to turn the outlook bullish for a test of 20300-20500 on the upside. While 19500 holds, Nikkei can remain in a sideways range of 17500-19500 for some more time.
Shanghai (2824.11, +8.74, +0.31%) seems to gain strength slowly. Our bullish bias remains intact and we expect the Shanghai to test 2850-2870 on the upside in the near-term. Also while above 2800, Shanghai has potential to revisit 3000-3100 levels over the medium-term.
Nifty (8748.75, -43.45, -0.49%) has come-off from the 9000-9250 resistance zone as expected indicating weakness. While below 9000 we expect the Nifty to fall to 8000-7800 in the coming days.
Similarly Sensex (29893.96, -173.25, -0.58%) has also come-off after testing 31100 in line with our expectation. While below 31000, a fall to 28000-27000 is possible.
COMMODITIES
Crude prices are stable just now. The hopes of a possible supply cut from the OPEC+ has kept the crude prices higher since last week but now the markets would await to see the outcome from the OPEC+ meeting scheduled today. A supply cut of anywhere between 10-15mln barrels per day could keep the rising prices intact but if the meeting ends without any decision on supply cut, we may expect crude prices to decline back to lower levels. Gold and Silver look stable. Copper may rise if support at current levels hold.
Brent (33.33) and Nymex WTI (25.86) trade stable just now. We may expect the prices to remain so near current levels till we get an announcement of supply cut from the OPEC+ meeting scheduled today. We may expect a sharp rise in prices if the expected cut takes place.
Gold (1682.72) is stable too. We may expect support near 1660 to hold and push prices back to higher levels in the near term towards 1700 or higher.
Silver (15.26) continues to trade above 15 and could be bullish for the near term. Only on a break below 15, we would negate bullish possibilities and look for lower targets.
Copper (2.2685) is trading just above immediate support and while that holds, the price could move up towards 2.35/40 in the near term.
FOREX
Currencies are mixed. Dollar trades above crucial support at 100 and a movement on either side from here would be crucial to get clarity on further direction. Euro trades higher but could face rejection from 1.09 or 1.0950. Dollar Yen, Pound, Yuan and EURJPY look bullish for the near term. Aussie could test interim resistance above current levels and could see a corrective dip from there. Dollar-Rupee is trading below crucial monthly resistance and while that holds, we may expect a dip in the near term. Failure to hold below that would trigger bullish concerns for the pair. Watch price action in USDINR closely.
Dollar Index (100.14) continues to trade above immediate support at 100 and movement from here would be important to get clarity on further direction. Preference would be for a rise towards 101 but failure of 100 to hold could take the index down to 99-98 levels in the near term. Watch price action near 100.
Euro (1.0859) has risen as expected but we would look for a possible dip either from 1.09 or higher from levels near 1.0950 in the near term.
Dollar-Yen (108.91) has risen slightly and could move higher towards 109-110 in the near term before falling off from there.
EURJPY (118.28) continues to trade within 116-121.50 and is likely to continue so for the near term with a possible rise towards 119-120.50 initially.
Aussie (0.6226) has immediate resistance near 0.6250 and while that holds, we may expect a dip from there towards 0.61 in the near term. Only a sustained break above 0.6250 would bring in scope of further rise above 0.6250.
Pound (1.2390) has risen and could target 1.25/27 in the near term before falling back towards 1.21-1.19.
USDCNY (7.0673) trades stable near levels seen yesterday. Immediate supports are seen near 7.05 and lower near 7.00 which could be tested in the near term.
USDINR (76.32) closed higher as the pair moved up sharply which came in as a surprise move. Closing above 76.20 now brings in resistance near 76.50 into the picture which could be tested today. While we may expect a fall back towards 76.00-75.80 over the next 1-2 days, we may not rule out a possible test of 76.50 in the near term. Note that today would be the last session of this week as markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury yields sustain higher and can move up further if they manage to breach their near-term resistances. The German yields remain higher and look bullish in the near-term. The 10Yr GoI can move up to test its crucial resistance from where it can reverse lower again.
The US 2Yr (0.24%) and 5Yr (0.45%) Treasury yields remain stable while the 10Yr (0.75%) and 30Yr (1.36%) have risen from the levels seen in early Asian trades yesterday. As mentioned yesterday, the 10Yr has to rise past 0.80% in order to gain momentum and move further higher to 1%. Similarly, the 30Yr can gain strength on strong break above 1.40% which will then pave way for a rise to 1.50%-1.60%
The German 2Yr (-0.65%), 5Yr (-0.54%), 10Yr (-0.31%) and 30Yr (0.08%) yields remain higher and stable. The near-term outlook is bullish. The 10Yr can test -0.20% while it sustains above -0.40%. The 30Yr can move up to 0.17%-0.20% while it remains above 0%.
The 10Yr GoI (6.4414%) has risen further and is heading towards the 6.45%-6.50% resistance cluster as expected. We prefer the 10Yr GoI to reverse lower from the 6.45%-6.50% region towards 6.35% again. But in case of a strong break above 6.50%, the preferred pull-back move to 6.35% will get negated and the 10Yr GoI can then target 6.60%-6.65% on the upside.
