The dollar index starts Q2 trading in firm tone, up 0.79% since Asian opening and boosted by rising demand for safe-haven dollar. Rising fears of the magnitude of negative impact of coronavirus crisis on global economic growth, keep traders away from riskier assets. Fresh bulls probe again through initial Fibo barrier at 99.62 (23.6% of 103.79/98.33 descend), ignoring negative signal from Tuesday’s strong upside rejection at psychological 100 barrier that left bearish daily candle with long upper shadow. Greenback’s sentiment remains positive and boosted by bullish setup of daily MA’s and stochastic emerging from oversold zone, but caution is required as bullish momentum continues to fade. Eventual close above 99.62 Fibo barrier is minimum requirement for bullish signal for attempt at 100 level and pivotal Fibo barrier at 100.42 (38.2% of 103.79/98.33), violation of which would accelerate bulls. Repeated failure to close above 99.62 barrier, on the other side, would signal extended congestion but also keep the downside vulnerable. Immediate supports lay at 99.10 (20DMA) and 98.96 (30DMA), guarding key levels at 98.33 (27 Mar low) and 97.99/82 (converged 100/200DMA’s/ daily cloud top).
Res: 99.82; 100.10; 100.42; 100.83
Sup: 99.10; 98.96; 98.56; 98.33
