GBPUSD’s recent ascent from the historic bottom of 1.1409 seems to be struggling at the 1.2461 border – that being the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 1.3514 to 1.1409 – and the restrictive trend line.
The short-term oscillators suggest that positive momentum is wavering. In the negative region, the MACD’s move above its red trigger line looks to be slowing, while the RSI has also lost positive strength reclaiming its 50 mark. Moreover, the stochastics appear to be in the process of completing a bearish crossover in the overbought region, confirming downside corrections. Boosting this view is the declining 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is just shy of finalising a bearish cross of the 200-day SMA.
Below the restrictive trend line, the price may initially test the 38.2% Fibo of 1.2214, where the mid-Bollinger band is also located ahead of a tough support region from the 1.1972 level to the 23.6% Fibo of 1.1902. Steering below this, the 1.1635 and 1.1445 lows could prevent a dive past the 35-year bottom of 1.1409 towards the 1.1364 and 1.1182 barriers, which are the 138.2% and 150.0% Fibonacci extensions of the up leg from 1.1957 to 1.3514.
Finding footing at the mid-Bollinger band, buyers could face immediate resistance from the trend line ahead of the 50.0% Fibo of 1.2461 and the 1.2515 obstacle overhead. Moving higher, the 1.2648 overlap of the 50- and 200-day SMAs and the nearby 61.8% Fibo of 1.2712 may halt the climb towards the 100-day SMA at 1.2848 and the 76.4% Fibo of 1.3015.
Overall, the short-term bias remains bearish below the descending line and the 50.0% Fibo of 1.2461, with a break below 1.1902 enhancing the negative picture.
