Currency pair USD/JPY
The USD/JPY broke back above the resistance trend line (dotted red) and could be retracing within a wave 2 (orange). The structure is valid unless price manages to break above the 100% level, which would invalidate the wave 2 and potential reversal for a new downtrend. There is also a potential for a head and shoulders reversal chart pattern (purple boxes) if price were to reverse around the 50-61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. A break below the neck support line (green) would then confirm the development of the chart pattern.
The USD/JPY indeed bounced at the previous bottom to complete a wave b (purple) correction as mentioned in yesterday’s analysis. The bullish bounce seems to be unfolding in 5 waves (grey) within a wave c (purple).
Currency pair EUR/USD
The EUR/USD has extended the bearish correction as mentioned in yesterday’s analysis. This increases the chance of a larger bearish retracement within wave 4 (green) towards the Fibonacci retracement levels of wave 4 vs 3. A break above the current top at 1.1490, however, indicates a likely uptrend continuation and invalidates a larger correction within wave 4.
The EUR/USD completed the ABC (brown) and bounced at resistance trend line (red) and the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level at 1.1450. A break below the support trend line (blue) could see a continuation wave c (brown) whereas a break above resistance (red) could expand the wave b (brown) correction.
Currency pair GBP/USD
The GBP/USD broke above the resistance trend line (dotted yellow) which could spark the start of wave 5 (orange). The Cable will however still need to break above the larger resistance trend line (red) before an uptrend has more space to develop.
The GBP/USD could be building a 5 wave (purple) within a wave 1 (grey) of wave 5 (orange). Once price reaches the resistance (red) and targets of wave 5, price might make a retracement for a wave 2 before continuing the uptrend. The invalidation level is at the current bottom at around 1.2810.
