NZDJPY seems to have stalled its two weeks decline from the 73.33 top around the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 68.86 to 73.52. It appears that sellers are in the process of pushing the market lower, something also aided by the downward sloping simple moving averages (SMAs) and the approaching second bearish crossover of the 200-day SMA.
The short-term oscillators suggest that negative momentum is increasing. The MACD is above its red trigger line but has flattened deep in the negative zone, while the RSI is creeping lower towards its 30 level. Moreover, in the Stochastics, the %K line deflected off the 80 level and is accelerating downwards.
Moving downwards, the recent low and nearby support of 70.86 could be first to apply the brakes. Clearing this, the 61.8% Fibo of 70.64 and swing low of 70.52 may be next in line to challenge sellers’ efforts to steer towards the 70.00 round number (previous resistance-now-support), which held in the past.
If buyers reemerge and push up, immediate resistance comes from the 50.0% Fibo of 71.18 ahead of the fresh swing high of 71.49 and 20-period SMA overhead. Next to limit the ascent is the 38.2% Fibo of 71.74. If buyers manage to then fill the gap from 71.85 to 72.09, the 50-period SMA at 72.14 and nearing bearish cross around 72.33 could cap further advances towards the 72.66 top.
In brief, the short-term bias is neutral-to-bearish and a close below 70.86 would boost the negative picture.
