STOCKS
The US markets were closed yesterday. Asian indices are trading lower. Nikkei and Shanghai have key supports coming up which have to hold in order to avoid further fall. DAX is holding higher and is keeping our bullish view intact. Sensex and Nifty have declined sharply and are poised near a key supports. A break below these supports can drag these indices further lower and increase the downside pressure on them.
Dow (29348.10, +50.46, +0.17%) was closed yesterday and is bullish while it sustains above 29100. As mentioned on Friday, while above 29100 a rise to 29733 can be seen in the coming days.
DAX (13548.94, +22.81, +0.17%) is managing to sustain above 13500. As mentioned yesterday, the outlook is bullish while above 13500 and rise to 13670-13700 can be seen.
Nikkei (23893.89, -189.62, -0.79%) has come-off below 24000. Support is now at 23800 which needs to hold in order to keep bullish view intact for seeing 25000 on the upside. A break below 23800 can drag the index to 23650 and 23500 and will also reduce the chances of seeing 25000 on the upside.
Shanghai (3071.56, -24.23, -0.78%) has dipped and need to be seen if it can sustain above 3065 or not. While this support holds the index can continue to remain stuck in the current narrow range of 3065-3100. But a break below 3065 can drag it to 3050 and 3035 from where it can bounce again. The downside is likely to be limited to 3035.
Nifty (12224.55, -127.80, -1.03%) has declined below 12300 and has an immediate support at 12200. A break below it can drag it to 12150. While the Nifty sustains above 12200, a bounce to 12300 and 12400 can be seen again in which case the index can remain range bound between 12200 and 12400.
Sensex (41528.91, -416.46, -0.99%) has a very crucial support at 41400. A break below it will see it tumbling further towards 41000 in the near-term. If it manages to sustain above 41400, a bounce to 41800 can be seen again and the index can remain range bound between 41400 and 42000 for some time.
COMMODITIES
Crude prices have dipped slightly but Gold and Silver looks bullish in the near term while supports hold. Copper may have little room on the downside before it bounces back again towards higher levels.
Brent (64.91) has dipped from our mentioned level of 66. Some ranged trade in the 64-66 region looks possible in the near term before a sharp movement is seen.
Nymex WTI (58.46) on the other hand looks bullish while above 57.50. There is room for a rise towards 61 or even higher in the near term.
Gold (1566.60) is trading higher and could move up to test 1580/90 on the upside before falling off from there. Near term could be bullish while interim support at 1540 holds.
Silver (18.09) has daily trend support at 18 and while that holds, Silver too could move up towards 18.50-18.75 in the near term.
Copper (2.8070) has dipped in line with our expectation as resistance near 2.90 is holding well. Interim support is seen at 2.7750 which could hold and push back Copper to higher levels. However, on the charts there is room for a fall towards 2.7250 which would come into the picture only if 2.7750 breaks on the downside.
FOREX
Dollar Index (97.57) looks bearish for the near term and could fall towards 97.40-97.24 in the near term.
Euro (1.1097) is stable. As mentioned yesterday, it could test 1.1068-1.1050 in the near term before bouncing higher. If Dollar Index falls from current levels, Euro could rise from current levels before testing 1.1068 in the medium term.
Resistance at 110.30 has held well on Dollar-Yen (109.96) pulling it back to levels below 110. While the resistance holds, we may expect a dip towards 109.72-109.50 in the near term.
EURJPY (122.08) is holding below resistance near 123 and a fall towards 120.78 looks likely in the near term. View is bearish while below 123.
Pound (1.3007) continues to trade near support at 1.30 and has to bounce back to negate a further fall from here. Preference is for a rise towards 1.32.
Aussie (0.6865) is trading lower and could test 0.6825 on the downside before bouncing back to higher levels.
USDCNY (6.8920) has bounced from trend support at 6.8409 and while that holds, we may expect a bounce back towards 2.92/95 in the coming sessions.
Dollar-Rupee (71.11) is sustaining trade above 71 and a break above interim resistance near 71.18 could trigger further rise towards 71.25/30 in the near term from where a pull back towards 71 looks likely. Watch price action near 71.18 today for a possible break on the upside.
INTEREST RATES
The US markets were closed yesterday. It will have to be seen if the US Treasury yields manage to hold above their key supports or not in order to keep alive the possibilities of seeing a rise. The German yields can dip in the near-term and then can resume their overall uptrend. The 10Yr can remain range bound for some time and is likely to move up within this range in the coming sessions.
The US 2Yr (1.54%), 5Yr (1.59%), 10Yr (1.79%) and 30Yr (2.25%) Treasury yields have to hold above their key supports in order to move higher this week. The 30Yr has a key support at 2.25 and the for the 10Yr it is at 1.79%. While these supports hold, a rise to 2.35%-2.40% on the 30Yr and 1.90%-1.95% on the 10Yr is possible. But if the yields decline below these supports a fall to 2.15% (30Yr) and 1.73% (10Yr) can be seen.
The German 2Yr (-0.60%), 5Yr (-0.52%) and 10Yr (-0.22%) yields have dipped slightly while the 30Yr (0.29%) remained stable. . Our view remains the same. We expect an intermediate dip to -0.25% on the 10Yr and 0.25% on the 30Yr in the near-term and then the broader uptrend can resume targeting 0.40% (30Yr) and -0.10% (10Yr)
The 10Yr GoI (6.6436%) is holding above 6.60% and can move up to 6.70%. As mentioned yesterday, the yield can remain range bound between 6.60% and 6.70% for some time and move up towards 6.75% eventually again.
