Gold prices have been trending lower in recent months, posting lower highs and lower lows below a downtrend line drawn from the highs of September. The outlook therefore looks cautiously negative, with a clear break below the 1445 zone needed to refuel the bears.
Short-term oscillators paint a flat picture, suggesting that the latest consolidation phase between 1490 and 1445 could continue for now. The RSI has flattened near its neutral line, while the MACD is at zero.
If the bears remain in control, their first target might be the 1458 line, where a downside break would open the door for another test of 1445. If they pierce below that area too, that would affirm that the broader downtrend is back in force, turning the focus to the 1433 territory next.
On the upside, if buyers take the wheel and manage to push decisively above the 1490 region and the aforementioned downtrend line, that would turn the picture to a more neutral one. In that case, the 1517 area – which capped multiple advances in recent months – might prove a tougher obstacle for the bulls.
In short, the outlook is cautiously negative. A break below 1445 would turn it firmly negative, whereas a move above 1490 would turn it neutral.
