AUDUSD failed to close above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and reversed lower, currently resting near the flat 50-day SMA within the Ichimoku cloud. It appears that as momentum has diminished, something also displayed by the horizontal Ichimoku lines and 50- and 100-day SMAs, a period of consolidation may be on the cards.
The short-term oscillators suggest that negative momentum has weakened. The MACD, above its red trigger line in the positive zone, has faded slightly, while the RSI has turned flat barely above its neutral mark.
If sellers manage to dive below the immediate levels of 0.6836 and 0.6827 in the cloud – these being the 50-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 0.7081 to 0.6670 respectively – the low of 0.6800, where the 100-day SMA also lies could halt further declines towards the trough of 0.6753. If selling interest persists, the swing lows of 0.6723 and 0.6709, as well as the support of 0.6686, could draw focus ahead of the multi-year low of 0.6670.
Alternatively, if buyers head up, the flat Tenkan-sen line and 50.0% Fibo of 0.6876 could be first to interrupt the climb to retest the 200-day SMA presently at 0.6900. Overtaking this, the 61.8% Fibo of 0.6924 and the latest high of 0.6938 could challenge the bulls’ efforts to stretch towards the 0.6995 inside swing low from July 17 and 0.7047 resistance above.
Overall, the short-term bias continues to paint a neutral picture below the 0.6924 level and 200-day SMA. However, a shift above 0.6938 could turn the bias to a more positive one.
