STOCKS
DAX and Nikkei have failed to breach their near-term resistances to resume their uptrend. DAX can continue to retain its sideways range and Nikkei can fall within its broader uptrend in the coming days. Shanghai is breaking below its crucial support and needs a close watch on how it closes for the week today. Sensex and Nifty have room to rise but have key resistances which can cap the upside and drag it lower going forward. The US markets were closed yesterday.
DAX (13245.58, -41.49, -0.31%) has failed to see a strong break above 13300 and has come-off yesterday. As 13300 is holding well now, we may expect the index to remain in the range of 13000-13300 and dip within this range now. This in turn will delay our preferred rise to 13600 and 14000.
Nikkei (23393.67, -15.47, -0.07%) seems to lack strength to breach 23500. While below 23500, a fall to 23200 and 23000 is possible in the coming days. As we have been mentioning for sometime, a strong rise past 23500 is needed to accelerate the rally to 24000 and higher levels.
Shanghai (2878.81, -10.89, -0.38%) is breaking below the crucial support level of 2880. A sustained trade below 2880 will be bearish to see 2865-2860 and even lower levels going forward. We will have to wait and see how the index closes for the week today.
Nifty (12151.15, +50.45, 0.42%) has moved up but has crucial resistances at 12200 and 12300 which needs a close watch. For now we expect the upside to be capped at 12300 and the index is likely to reverse lower going forward.
Sensex (41130.17, +109.56, +0.27%) on the other hand has a key resistance near current levels at 41170 and then at 41300 which can cap the upside now and produce a fall going forward.
COMMODITIES
Commodities look bearish for the near term.
Brent (63.07) has come down while WTI (58.04) trades slightly higher today. We would continue to see 63-65 and 57-60 as respective near term support and resistance levels for Brent and Nymex WTI.
Gold (1463.50) looks bearish towards 1440 while below 1480/70. Silver (17.02) has come down a bit and could target 16 in the near term. View is bearish for both.
Copper (2.6735) is likely to trade in the broad 2.7250-2.60 region till at least next week.
FOREX
Most currencies are trading stable. Dollar Index and Euro are at crucial levels and a movement on either side is needed to decide on further direction. Dollar Yen and Pound is also trading near important resistance levels while Aussie and Rupee looks weak just now. Yuan continues to trade sideways.
Dollar Index (98.32) has been trading with very narrow movement near 98.30 levels for the past 5-sessions and is not able to break above immediate resistance at 98.50. While there is room for a dip towards 98.00-97.70 if 98.50 holds, preference would be an eventual rise towards 99+.
Euro (1.1010) is holding above support near 1.10. It would be important to see if it bounces higher from here or manages to break on the downside. A rise or fall from current levels of 98.50 on Dollar Index would be crucial.
Dollar-Yen (109.48) is stable near 109.50. A break on the upside is needed to push it higher towards 110 before a corrective dip is seen. Watch price action near 109.50.
EUR-JPY (120.56) has risen slightly and if it manages to break above 120.69, it could head towards 121.48/51 in the near term.
Pound (1.2907) is stuck in the 1.2745-1.2974 region and would be important to break sharply on either side to decide on further near term trend. Till then we are neutral on the direction and would expect some more sideways movement below 1.30/31 within the mentioned range.
Aussie (0.6766) looks bearish in the near term towards 0.6724.
USDCNY (7.0334) has risen slightly but is likely to remain below 7.04. Downside is expected to be limited at 7.
Dollar-Rupee (71.6175) moved up sharply as the currency pair saw buying near 71.25. While above 71.50, we may expect trade in the 71.50-71.75 region for sometime before coming down towards 71.40/25 again. Price movement for the next few sessions would be crucial.
INTEREST RATES
The German Yields continue to trade lower at the near-end and are coming closer to their key supports which are likely to hold and produce a bounce. The 10Yr GoI looks weak and can dip in the near-term. The US markets were closed yesterday.
The German 2Yr (-0.64%), 5Yr (-0.59%) and 10Yr (-0.36%) remained stable while the 30Yr (0.14%) inched slightly higher. . The 10Yr has support at -0.40% and -0.43% from where it can bounce again. The 30Yr retains its 0.10%-0.15% range and has to witnessed a strong rise past 0.22% to gain strength and resume the uptrend.
The 10Yr (06.45 GS 2029) GOI (6.4579%) had dipped and is bearish in the near-term. A dip test the supports at 6.43% and 6.40% looks likely in the coming days. It will have to be seen if the yield manages to bounce from these supports or not.
The US markets were closed yesterday.
