The Euro fell to daily low at 1.1123 after weaker than expected German/EU mfg & services PMI data, which offset positive impact from French PMI’s above expectations earlier this morning.
Weak data signal that the EU economy is at the border of contraction as manufacturing EU and German PMI’s stay below 50 threshold for the ninth straight month, but services and composite indexes above 50, partially absorbed negative effect.
The pair erased early European session gains and diminished positive signal from Thursday’s strong rejection and daily cloud top (1.1105) and subsequent bounce. The downside remains vulnerable after data, with risk of renewed attack at pivotal daily cloud top, as signaled by fading bullish momentum and south-heading stochastic on daily chart.
ECB’s policy meeting is the next key event today, although the central bank is not expected to make changes in its policies, Mario Draghi in his last meeting as cb’s president is expected to support its latest decision in renewed bond-buying program, as the bloc is at the brink of recession.
Near-term action lacks direction on mixed signals on 4-hr and daily chart, with Mario Draghi’s speech on press conference to possibly provide more clues about direction.
Short-term bulls from 1.0878 keep in focus significant barriers at 1.1204/08 (200DMA/Fibo 61.8% of 1.1412/1.0878), with lift above recent top at 1.1179, needed to open way. Conversely, violation of daily cloud top and rising 10DMA (1.109) would generate negative signal and risk further easing.
Res: 1.1140, 1.1162, 1.1179, 1.1208
Sup: 1.1123, 1.1105, 1.1099, 1.1064
