NZDUSD maintains the uptrend that started from the May 11 low of 0.6816 to the June 14 high of 0.7318. The bias turned bullish after prices rose above the 200-day moving average at the key psychological level of 0.7100 in early June.
However, after RSI reached overbought levels above 70, the oscillator slipped back down and NZDUSD is now consolidating just above the 0.7200 handle since peaking at 0.7318.
A decline in prices would find support at 0.7170 before approaching the key 0.7100 level. From here, the next big figure at 0.7000 comes into view. Breaking below 0.6950 (an important resistance level in May), would negate the current short-term bullish bias and would open the way for a deeper decline towards 0.6816 (May 11 low).
A bounce in prices from current levels would see a re-test of 0.7318 with scope to resume the uptrend towards 0.7375 (February high). The market would need to remain above 0.7100 in order to maintain upside momentum.
The short-term trend is neutral, as a consolidation phase is expected. But the uptrend from 0.6816 still remains intact. Technical indicators are supporting a bullish picture, with the positive alignment of the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines as well as RSI and MACD in bullish territory. The market is above the 200-day moving average and above the Ichimoku cloud.
Looking at the bigger picture, the trend is neutral, as NZDUSD has been trading between 0.6820 and 0.7375 for the past six months since December 2016.
