Nearer term $ index outlook :
In the Jun 13th email said that further short term downside below that Jun 6th bottom at 96.50 was favored, but such weakness would be limited and part of a larger bottoming. The market did indeed slip to a slight new low at 96.30 on Jun 14th before sharply reversing that day, and has continued higher since. Lots of positives add to that view of a bottom and include the rapid reversal from that slight new low (sign of underlying strength), likely completion of the 5 wave decline from at least the May 9th high at 102.25, bullish technicals (see bull divergence/buy mode on the daily macd) and view of an approaching more major low (eventual gains above that Jan high at 103.80, see longer term below). At this point, there is still no confirmation of a more important low "pattern-wise" (5 waves up for example), leaving open some scope for another few weeks of this broader ranging/bottoming. Also don’t forget that the long held "ideal" area to form a more major top in eur/$ is above at 1.1425/75 (top of 2 year falling wedge, seen email from yesterday) and in turn adds to this risk of a further period of bottoming in the US$ index/DXY (inverse relationship). Nearby resistance is seen at 98.15/30 (both the bearish trendline from Apr 10th and the broken falling support line from Feb), with a break/close clearly above arguing more substantial gains more directly ahead. Nearby support is seen at the bull trendline from Dec 15th (adjusts for that Jun 14th spike), and again that whole 96.15/30 area (Jun 14th low, falling support line from Feb). Bottom line : quick bounce back from that slight new low 96.30 adds to the view of that larger bottoming, but still with some risk of another few weeks of chopping as part of the process.
Strategy/position:
Long Jun 8th above that bear t-line from May 11th (then 96.65, closed at 96.80). For now given that risk for a further period of this larger bottoming, would use an aggressive stop on a close 15 ticks below that bull t-line from Jun 15th. However, with such a break (if it occurs) seen part of this larger bottoming, will rebuy 96.35 if taken out (and then stopping on a close 15 ticks below the falling support line from Feb). Remember it will often take a couple of attempts as these larger bottoms form before more substantial gains are finally seen.
Long term outlook:
No change as the view since mid May of a month or so of ranging with a downward bias as a more major bottom approaches, continues to play out. As discussed above, that more major bottom may finally be "complete"/in place and with eventual gains back to the Jan high at 103.80 (and even above) favored. In the big picture, the 3 wave rally from the May 2016 low at 91.90 to the Jan 3rd high at 103.80 (A-B-C) argues a large "complex" topping, and still favor the view of a huge rising wedge since May 2015. Though seen as a reversal pattern, wedges break down into 5 legs and "ideally" targets a final upleg back to that Jan high at 103.80 (and even just above) in that final leg (wave V). But as mentioned above, there does remain some risk for another few weeks of ranging/bottoming before more substantial upside is seen (see in red on weekly chart/2nd chart below). Bottom line : in process of a major bottoming and with eventual gains above the Jan high at 103.80 after.
Strategy/position:
With the market seen in process of a major bottoming (and eventual gains above 103.80), looking to switch the longer term bias to bullish. So for now would switch on a close above 98.45 (just above that 98.15/30 resistance area) or 96.35 (given the risk for further bottoming).
Current:
Near term : long Jun 8th at 96.80, scope for a further period of ranging/basing ahead.
Last : long May 5 at 98.75.stopped May 16 below t-line from Feb (98.45, closed 98.10).
Longer term : major bottoming for eventual gains above that Jan 103.80 high, see entry strategy above.
Last: :bull bias May 5 at 98.75 to neutral may 16th at 98.10.
