STOCKS
Dow (21528.99, +0.68%) rose with a gap up and has moved up towards our target of 21600 as expected. Near term looks bullish and there could be potential towards 22000 in the longer run.
Dax (12888.95, +1.07%) has also moved up to the upper limit of our range of 12900-12600 mentioned yesterday and in case it breaks above 12900, we may expect the rise to extend towards 13000-13100 levels.
Shanghai (3139.34, -0.16%) is almost stable and is rising gradually with some dips in an overall near term up trend. A rise towards 3175 is still on the cards while above 3120. Near term looks bullish.
Nikkei (20287.67, +1.10%) is also stable and could spend another couple of sessions in the range of 20250-19700 before breaking on either side. We need to wait for confirmation from price movement.
Nifty (9657.55, +0.72%) saw a good bounce yesterday in line with our expectations and while the support at 9550 holds, there is scope of seeing a rise towards 9700-9750 or higher in the near term.
COMMODITIES
Bullion is trading weak against the Dollar just now.Gold (1246) is trading just above immediate support at 1245. A break below 1245 is necessary to turn bearish towards 1231 for the near term else a bounce back could take it higher towards 1262. Gold is oversold in near term time frame thus it could bounce from current levels and remain range bound within 1245-1262 for few days.
Silver (16.54) is almost stable and is trading in the middle of the 16.20-90 channels. A rise towards 16.90 is on the cards in the coming sessions due to oversold condition.
Copper (2.57) may bounce from 2.55 and remain within 2.55-2.67 for couple of days. We wait for further directional clarity on a break on either side of 2.55 and 2.67 levels.
Brent (46.93) and WTI (44.19) are hovering round their respective supports of 46.68 and 44.Markets are oversold in near term time frame and If Brent and WTI manage to close above their supports in the next couple of sessions, an attempt for 50.50 and 46.50 can be seen. Market is waiting for tomorrow’s U.S Weekly crude oil inventory data. Only a higher than expected (-1.2 M B) could be beneficial for Brent and WTI. Otherwise a surplus or a less than expected shortage could bring the bearish possibilities again into consideration.
FOREX
Dollar Index (97.32) is in a range of 96.30-97.80 for the third consecutive week. If the interim support band of 97.10-96.80 holds, then it may rise above 97.80 by the end of the week.
Euro (1.1154) is trading lower as we had mentioned yesterday that "the selling pressure may be back near the resistance of 1.1215-35 and the lower end of the 3-week range of 1.1100-1.1300 may be retested". If it will close below 1.1160 levels today, then we might see 1.1100 levels by end if this week.
Dollar-Yen (111.66) has risen towards 112 in line with what we had mentioned yesterday. Our initial target of 112 and then 113 remains intact for the coming sessions. Near term looks bullish.
Pound (1.27348) is in a corrective phase as mentioned yesterday. While below 1.2850, we are open to a test of 1.26 or lower in the near term before a fresh bounce is seen.
Aussie (0.7590) is trading slightly lower today. Immediate support is seen near 0.7570-0.7560 region which if holds, could take it back towards 0.76 or higher. We could see stable movement in the next 2-3 sessions.
Dollar-Rupee (64.43) has bounced back from levels near 64.30 and the current rise may take the currency pair towards 64.55/60 before again coming off towards 64.30. Ranged movement within the broad 64.60-64.30 region is possible in the near term.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields are rising and looks potentially bullish in the near term the 10YR (2.18%) could rise towards 2.25% in the near term while the 5Yr (1.78%) and the 30Yr (2.78%) can move up to 1.86% and 2.85% respectively.
The US 10-5Yr (0.40%) has fallen sharply in the last couple of sessions and is just above important support levels. While support holds, we could see a bounce back towards 0.42% in the medium term. This could possibly indicate that the 10YR could move up faster compared to the 5Yr in the coming sessions.
The US 30-5Yr (0.99%) seems to have broken the long term support and in case this sustains, the yield differential could fall off towards 0.90% or lower in the near term.
The German-Us 2Yr (-2.01%) is testing the earlier resistance turned support and if that holds, we could see a bounce back towards -1.95% taking the Euro up with itself. We need to see if the yield spread moves back below the support level or bounces back from there.
