STOCKS
Almost all major stock indices look bullish for the coming sessions.
Dow (21384.28, +0.11%) has been moving slow but looks bullish for the coming sessions. We could see a rise towards 21600 soon.
Dax (12752.73, +0.48%) has been fluctuating within the broad 12900-12600 region for the past few sessions and will have to break on either side to give us more clarity on further direction. For now while 12690 holds, we could see a rise to 12900 in the next 2-3 sessions.
Shanghai (3135.79, +0.40%) has risen and could have tested a decent support near 3120 which if holds, could take it higher towards 3160-3175 over the coming sessions.
Nikkei (20062.19, +0.60%) is trading higher and looks potentially bullish towards 20200-20240 levels in the near term.
Nifty (9588.05, +0.10%) has high chances of bouncing back to levels above 9600 within the next 2-3 sessions. Support near 9550-9570 may not break on the downside just now. We could possibly see another leg of a sharp rally in the near to medium term.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1266) remains in a slow corrective move which may take it to the support of 1242 but if the support holds, a quick bounce towards 1307can’t be ruled out. Silver (17.14) also continues to weaken and may decline to 16.90 in the coming days. We might see less volatility in the market ahead of FOMC meeting (on 14th June 2017), which may add some directional clarity.
Copper (2.63) is trading within the narrow range of 2.56-2.67. Only above 2.67, higher resistances of 2.84 can come into consideration. We will remain bullish on copper while it is trading above 2.55 regions.
Brent (48.40) and WTI (46.09) had tested their respective supports of 47.40 and 44.20, and bounced a little, keeping the upside possibility of 50.22 (Brent) and 47.50 (WTI) open. If Brent and WTI manage to close above 50.30 and 47.50 in the next couple of sessions, another attempt for 52 and 49.55 can be seen. Bearish possibilities will come in consideration in case 47.40 for Brent and 44.20 for WTI break down.
FOREX
The persistent decline in US Housing data taking it to a 8-month low and the much worse than expected reading in the US Consumer Sentiment gauge weakened the Dollar again.
The failure to rise above our resistance of 97.80 keeps Dollar Index (97.17) in a range of 96.30-97.80 for the third consecutive week. If the interim support band of 97.10-96.80 holds, then it may rise above 97.80 by the end of the week.
Euro (1.1195) found short covering from our support of 1.1120 but the selling pressure may be back near the resistance of 1.1215-35 and the lower end of the 3-week range of 1.1100-1.1300 may be retested.
Dollar-Yen (111.00) is taking a pause after the sharp rally from 108.80 to 111.42 in just 3 sessions, in line with our expectations. After this pause, the rally may resume for 112.00 and then 113.00.
Pound (1.2771) remains in a grinding corrective bounce which may end and the larger downtrend may resume by the end of the week. Immediate upside may be limited to 1.2850 but the downside is open to 1.2600 and lower.
Aussie (0.7622) may test the long term resistance of 0.7700-50 in the next few days and the price action there may determine the near to medium term path. Immediate support comes at 0.7570.
Dollar-Rupee (64.43) rallied to test 64.7350 before coming off sharply to close at the day’s low. The momentum with which it has fallen from 64.7350 is indicative of further bearishness in the early sessions this week. While 64.70/60 holds, we could possibly be headed towards 64.30-10 in the coming sessions.
INTEREST RATES
The German yields are mixed. The 30YR (1.11%) is trying to move down slowly while the shorter term yields ranging from 2Yr to 10Yr have been eventually rising and could test resistance in the coming sessions from where a fall could be expected in the medium term.
The German 10-2Yr (0.9360%) has been moving to lower levels and could test 0.80% in the coming sessions.
The Japan 10Yr (0.06%) could test decent resistance at 0.07% from where a fall could be expected in the near term. The Japanese yield differentials are headed to lower levels and look bearish for medium term.
