The USDTRY holds in red for the fourth straight day and cracked key support at 5.5658 (200DMA) today. Lira advanced strongly after Turkey’s central bank surprised markets by 4.25% rate cut last week against expectations for 2.5% cut. Improved CBRT’s economic outlook and signs of falling inflation, justify central bank’s action and add to improved lira’s sentiment. Bears may show hesitation to break very strong 200DMA support (reinforced by Fibo 61.8% of 5.1595/6.2445 ascend at 5.5740) in first attempt, as oversold daily stochastic and fading bearish momentum suggest a pause. Consolidation and possible stronger upticks towards a cluster of daily MA’s (5/10/20) at 5.65/67 zone will be seen as positioning for final push through 200DMA that would open for further lira’s advance and expose psychological 5.50 support. Only firm break above 20DMA (5.6679) would sideline bears and signal rejection at 200DMA support.
Res: 5.5977, 5.6201, 5.6499, 5.6679
Sup: 5.5658, 5.5520, 5.5000, 5.4709
