STOCKS
Dow (21359.90, -0.07%) was almost stable but has the potential to move up towards 21600 by mid of next week. The rise could be eventual and slow but overall near term looks bullish.
Dax (12691.81, -0.89%) has come off sharply and while below the important resistance of 13000, there is some scope of re-testing 12500-12400 in the medium term before possibly stating another leg of an upward rally.
Shanghai (3128.27, -0.13%) is also trading lower and could possibly test 3100 before again trying to move up. Immediate trend looks bearish.
Nikkei (19917.73, +0.43%) has the potential to move up towards 20100 in the next 2-3 sessions. Momentum could be slow but an eventual rise is expected while above 19700.
Nifty (9578.05, -0.42%) could find some support near 9550-9530 today from where it could bounce back to higher levels in the near term. Only on a break below 9530, if seen would force us to change our current bullish view on Nifty.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1255) is trading at lower levels and may test the support zone of 1245. As the dollar index is inching towards 98.30 levels, the bullish momentum is slowly evaporating. In case a break below 1245 takes place in the coming sessions, we may have to consider lower levels of 1230. Thus 1245 could be a level where the price action has to be checked to assess the future price direction.
Similar kind of trading pattern has been seen in silver (16.71) also. The recent trading range could be 16.50-16.95. we think 16.50 would provide good support due to short term oversold condition
Copper (2.57) is hovering around its support at 2.55 of the trading range of 2.55-2.67. Only above 2.66, higher resistances of 2.72-80 can come into consideration. In the medium term 2.55 are going to be a strong support now but a close below that could open up 2.40-35 levels as well.
Taking a look at the energy section, a bounce back could be expected for both Brent (46.93) and WTI (44.45) due to near term oversold condition. Brent could be headed towards 51.25 and WTI towards 47. Immediate supports are poised at 45.42 for Brent and 44 for WTI respectively.
FOREX
Dollar Index (97.43) made a fresh high at 96.84 before coming back near 97.40. As we had said yesterday that the technical picture hasn’t changed much as the upside reversal chances remain open but requires a break above 97.20-30 to confirm it and a close above 98.10 could be a trend reversal.
Euro (1.1149) had registered a fresh low at 1.1132. It is now trading within the range of 1.1198-1.1120. Yesterday it had faced stiff rejection at the higher levels, imply inherent weakness which would be confirmed on a break below 1.1120 levels.
Dollar-Yen (111.09) was rejected exactly from the support of 109 to a fresh high at 110.97 and the sharp recovery suggests that the Dollar bulls are still at play. The downside looks limited to 108.00 and as we had mentioned yesterday, a break above 110.35 took it to 111.00 already and open up the next resistance of 113.00.
Pound (1.2774) could possibly remain stable today. 1.26/25 is an immediate support for the near term. The currency pair could be ranged within 1.25-1.28 for a couple of sessions before trying to break on either side..
Aussie (0.7592), has been testing levels near 0.7635 for the last 2-sessions but has not been able to sustain above 0.76.Either a fall to 0.7520 is on the card before a ounce to levels above 0.76 or the currency pair may just move up sharply towards 0.7635-0.7650 over the next few sessions.
Dollar-Rupee (64.54) is trading at 64.54 in the NDF right now. Repeat – the support of 64.30-20 is expected to hold and push it back to 64.60-80.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields have moved up and could head higher in the coming sessions. The 5YR, 10YR and 30YR are trading higher and could head towards 1.81%, 2.25% and 2.90% respectively.
The Japanese yields are also moving up and could be headed to higher levels in the near term.
The UK and German yields are almost stable and could initiate some fresh movements next week.
