The Euro managed to close above rising 20SMA on Friday that sidelined immediate downside risk after short-lived dip to 1.1166.
Recovery extension Monday was so far capped by hourly cloud (1.1216), keeping intact the upper pivot at 1.1232 (10SMA). Sustained break above the latter is needed to generate stronger bullish signal and turn near-term focus higher.
However, risk of deeper pullback remains as bearish candle of last week and bearish divergence on daily MACD/RSI weigh.
Firm break below 20SMA (1.1203) would signal an extension of pullback from multiple upside rejections at 1.1285 towards next pivotal supports at 1.1114/09 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0839/1.1285/30 May trough), loss of which would confirm reversal.
Key event of the week, FOMC policy meeting which ends on Wednesday is in focus, as Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates for the second time this year that would increase rate divergence and put the Euro under increased pressure.
Res: 1.1216, 1.1232, 1.1269, 1.1285
Sup: 1.1197, 1.1166, 1.1114, 1.1109
