GBPJPY is in a downtrend since the May 10 high of 148.09. Prices reached a low of 140.70 this week. The RSI is below 50 in bearish territory and has no clear direction, so the market does not look like it can push any higher in the near term. It has reached a critical level at the 50% Fibonacci of the uptrend from 135.58 to 148.09. There is now a consolidation phase around this level.
The market is below the tenkan-sen line and there was a bearish crossover of this line below the kijun-sen on May 29, which gave a bearish signal and is keeping the bias to the downside. A move lower would target 140.36, which is the 61.8 Fibonacci. Breaking below this support would strengthen the bearish bias and open the way for a deeper fall towards 138 before heading to the April 17 low at 135.58.
The medium-term bias remains bearish as long as the market is in a descending channel. A rise above the June 2 high of 143.93 is needed to shift momentum back to the upside to target resistance at the 23.6 Fibonacci at 145.14. A move above 147 would help bring a resumption of the April to May uptrend.
