STOCKS
Global equities broadly remain positive except for Shanghai which has room for more fall. Sensex and Nifty can see some upticks within their sideways range. Japanese markets are closed for the entire week on account account of public holidays.
Dow (26544.39, +11.06, +0.04%) has turned up from its 21-day moving average support (26370) and retains our bullish view intact for a test of 26700 in the near term and target 27000 eventually in the coming weeks.
The support at 12240 is holding well on DAX (12328.02, +12.84, +0.10%) and keeps the oulook is bullish for a rise to 12450-12500.
Shanghai (3086.85, +24.35, +0.80%) is seeing some short covering which can take it higher to 3100-3130 in the coming sessions and the downtrend is likely to resume thereafter towards 3050.
Sensex (39067.33, +336.47, +0.87%) retains its 38500-39500 sideways range. It can rise to 39500 – the upper end of the range while it sustains above 39000.
Nifty (11754.65, 112.85, 0.97%) is heading towards the upper end of its 11550-11800 range. A break above 11800 will see a further rally to 11900.
COMMODITIES
The corrective rally in gold has room to extend in the near term. Silver is mixed and can trade sideways. Copper, though has bounced, remains vulnerable for a fall again. Oil, with key resistances ahead, remains bearish.
Gold (1282) has support at 1275. While above this support a corrective rally to 1292 or even 1300 is possible before it falls back to 1275-1270 levels.
Silver (14.94) is mixed and can oscillate between 14.80 and 15.10.
Copper (2.89) has bounced but has resistance at 2.92 (21-day moving average). The outlook is bearish for a fall again to 2.85-2.84 while copper remains belo 2.92.
The resistance at 64 can cap the current bounce-back move in WTI (63.35). A pull-back thereafter will drag WTI to 62 and even 61.5
Brent (71.82) is bearish and can dip to 71 in the near term. The resistance at 72.70 can cap the upside and will Brent pressured for a fall to 70-69.8 in the coming days.
FOREX
US Dollar may see some fall in the coming sessions especially after the recent rally from 96.70 to 98.30. Aussie and Euro looks bullish while Euro-Yen could be stable with a slight rise in the coming sessions. Dollar-Yen is ranged and is unable to give directional clarity for the medium term.
98.32 on the Dollar Index (97.81) has held well last week and the index could test 97.50-97.30 on the downside before again rising back towards 98.25 in the medium term.
The Euro (1.1189) has risen well from 1.11 and while the rise sustains, 1.1225-1.1230 looks possible in the coming sessions. Immediate view is bullish. On the 3-day candles, there is scope for a rise towards 1.13.
The Euro-Yen (124.90) could rise towards 125-126 in the near term before falling from there back towards 124. Immediate view is bullish.
Dollar-Yen (111.59) is trading in a very narrow range. Broad 111-112.00/50 could be the region of trade in the near term. Thereafter, whether the pair would move above 112.50 or fall below 111 is unclear just now. We would wait for price confirmation to give directional clarity for the medium term.
The Aussie (0.7049) could test 0.710-0.715 on the upside. Immediate support at 0.70 is holding well for now and while Aussie trades above 0.70, view is bullish.
USDCNY (6.7387) may rise just now but is likely to face rejection near 6.75/76 levels from where a fall back to 6.72/70 is a possibility. Watch immediate resistance near 76.75/76
Dollar-Rupee (70.01) may test 69.75/80 before 70.25/50 on the upside. Note that 70.25/50 is an important resistance zone and while that holds, Dollar-Rupee could be stable for sometime in the 69.75-70.25/50 zone. NDF quotes 69.82 just now.
INTEREST RATES
The German 30YR (0.65%) and the 10Yr (0.006%) are testing immediate resistance trend-line and could fall towards 0.60-0.50% and -0.1% in the near term if the resistance holds. The 5Yr (-0.417%) and the 2Yr (-0.577%) could have some ore room on the upside for a few sessions before falling from there.
The German-US 10YR (-2.52%) is testing the earlier support turned resistance which if holds could push the yield spread lower towards -2.55%. A fall in the spread could push Euro lower in the medium term.
The US 10Yr (2.53%) and the 30Yr (2.96%) have resistances at 2.55% and 2.98% respectively and could soon see a fall from these levels in the coming sessions.
The 10Yr GOI (7.5258%) has support at 7.50% which if holds could soon push the yield higher towards 7.60/65% in the coming sessions. Downside could extend to 7.45% on a break below 7.50% but overall we see a gradual rise to 7.65% while above 7.45/50%.
