The Euro is consolidating under Friday’s fresh high at 1.1285 which was touched again in early Asian session on Monday. Overall structure is bullish and underpinned by Friday’s long green candle and eventual break and close above previous high at 1.1268, posted on 23 May, after the Euro rallied on Friday, boosted by downbeat US jobs numbers.
Limited correction is seen preceding fresh upside action which eyes targets at 1.1300 (round-figure / length of current fifth wave of five-wave cycle from 1.0820) and 1.1313 (Fibo 76.4% of 1.1614/1.0340 descend).
Solid supports lay at 1.1254 and 1.1236 (Fibo 38.2% and 61.8% of Friday’s post US NFP rally respectively) with extended dips expected to find ground at 1.1213/1.1197 support zone, formed by 10SMA / Daily Tenkan-sen.
The pair is likely to extend consolidative phase until ECB policy meeting (08 June). Hawkish ECB (last week’s speculation of reducing QE, forward guidance change and possible early rate hike) would spark stronger rise and expose targets at 1.1366/1.1428.
Conversely, loss of 1.1200 handle would soften near-term structure.
Res: 1.1285, 1.1313, 1.1366, 1.1400
Sup: 1.1254, 1.1236, 1.1213, 1.1197
