Key Highlights
- The British Pound traded higher recently and tested 147.00 against the Japanese Yen.
- GBP/JPY surpassed two key bearish trend lines near 145.90 on the 4-hours chart.
- The UK Claimant Count in March 2019 changed 28.3K, more than the 20.0K forecast.
- The UK Consumer Price Index in March 2019 (YoY) could increase 2.0%.
GBPJPY Technical Analysis
The British Pound started a fresh increase from the 144.78 low against the Japanese Yen. The GBP/JPY pair broke the 145.20, 145.60 and 146.20 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.
Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair formed a solid support above 145.00 and climbed higher steadily after it broke the 145.60 resistance and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours, red).
During the rise, the pair surpassed two key bearish trend lines near 145.90 on the same chart. The upward move was strong as the pair even broke the 146.80 level and tested the 147.00 resistance area.
A new swing high was formed at 147.01 before the pair corrected below 146.80 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 144.78 low to 147.01 high. However, there are many supports on the downside near the 146.00 and 145.80 levels.
Moreover, the 100 simple moving average (4-hours, red) is likely to act as a strong support near the 145.60 level. Therefore, the pair remains well supported above 145.60 and it may soon resume its upward move towards 147.00 or even 147.50.
Fundamentally, the UK Claimant Count report for March 2019 was released by the National Statistics. The market was looking for a change of 20.0K in March 2019, less than the last 27.0K.
The actual result was disappointing as the change was more than the forecast at 28.3K. The last reading was revised down from 27.0K to 26.7K. Besides, the ILO Unemployment Rate remained stable at 3.9%.
The report added that:
The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 20.7%, lower than for a year earlier (21.2%) and the joint-lowest figure on record. The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.1%, higher than for a year earlier (75.4%) and the joint-highest figure on record.
Both GBP/USD and GBP/JPY declined after the release, but it seems like dips in GBP/JPY remain well supported above 145.60.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
- UK Consumer Price Index March 2019 (YoY) – Forecast +2.0%, versus +1.9% previous.
- UK Core Consumer Price Index March 2019 (YoY) – Forecast +1.9%, versus +1.8% previous.
- Euro Zone CPI for March 2019 (YoY) – Forecast +1.4%, versus +1.4% previous.
- Euro Zone CPI for March 2019 (MoM) – Forecast +1.0%, versus +0.3% previous.
- Canadian Consumer Price Index March 2019 (MoM) – Forecast +0.7%, versus +0.7% previous.
- Canadian Consumer Price Index March 2019 (YoY) – Forecast +1.9%, versus +1.5% previous.
