Key Highlights
- Crude oil price started a strong rise and traded to a new 2019 high above $64.00 against the US dollar.
- There was a break above a bullish flag pattern with resistance at $62.40 on the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD.
- The US CPI in March 2019 increased 0.4% (MoM), more than the +0.3% forecast.
- The US PPI in March 2019 could rise 0.3% (MoM), less than the last +0.1%.
Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
In the past two weeks, there was a strong rise in crude oil price from the $58.00 support against the US Dollar. The price surged above the $60.00 and $64.00 resistance levels to set a new yearly high.
Looking at the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD, the price gained bullish momentum after it settled above the $60.00 pivot level. There was a strong close above $62.00, the 100 (red) simple moving average (4-hours), and the 200 (green) simple moving average (4-hours).
Intermediately, there was a break above a bullish flag pattern with resistance at $62.40. It opened the doors for more gains above the $63.00 and $64.00 levels. The price even broke the $62.50 level before correcting lower.
On the downside, there are many supports near the $63.50 and $63.00 levels. Therefore, if there is a downside correction, the price is likely to find bids near the $63.00 and $62.50 levels.
On the upside, there is a crucial resistance near the $65.00 level, above which bulls might eye a test of the $66.50 resistance area.
Fundamentally, the US Consumer Price Index report for March 2019 was released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The market was looking for a 0.3% rise in the CPI in March 2019, compared with the previous month.
The actual result was better than the forecast as there was a 0.4% rise in the CPI. Looking at the yearly change, the CPI increased 1.9%, more than the 1.8% forecast.
The report added:
The energy index increased 3.5 percent in March, accounting for about 60 percent of the seasonally adjusted all items monthly increase. The gasoline index increased sharply, and the electricity index also rose, although the natural gas index declined. The food index also increased in March, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both continuing to rise.
Looking at major pairs, EUR/USD and GBP/USD faced an increase in selling pressure and they remain at a risk of more losses in the near term.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
- German Consumer Price Index March 2019 (YoY) – Forecast +1.3%, versus +1.3% previous.
- German Consumer Price Index March 2019 (MoM) – Forecast +0.4%, versus +0.4% previous.
- US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 211K, versus 202K previous.
- US Producer Price Index March 2019 (MoM) – Forecast +0.3%, versus +0.1% previous.
- US Producer Price Index March 2019 (YoY) – Forecast +1.9%, versus +1.9% previous.
