STOCKS
Global indices like the Dow Jones and DAX have gained strength and are looking bullish in the short term. Asian indices on the other hand, though inching higher, the pace of move is slow as they head towards their respective key resistance levels. The Asians look vulnerable for a fall in the coming days while their resistances hold.
Dow Jones (25411.52, +172.15, +0.68%) has surged giving confirmation on its break above 25,000. It can test 25,600 in the near term a break above which will pave way for the next target of 26,000.
DAX (11,367.98, +191.40, +1.71%) has risen sharply after a few days of muted movement and has turned bullish. A test of 10,500-10,550 looks is possible on a strong break above 10,400.
Nikkei (20,957.37, +112.92, +0.54%) seems to lack fresh buyers to take it beyond the key resistance level of 21,000. The index has come-off from the high of 20,981.23. While this resistance holds, a pull-back move to 20,700 and 20,450 cannot be ruled out in the coming days.
Sensex (36,616.81, +34.07, +0.09%) and Nifty 50 (10,934.35, +22.10, +0.20%) inched further higher and are heading towards their respective resistance levels of 36,850 and 10,985. The price action indicates that the indices seems to lack strength. Inability to gain momentum in the coming sessions will see the indices reversing lower going forward. In such a scenario, the Sensex can fall to 36,000 and 35,500 and the Nifty 50 can test 10,700-10,600 in the coming weeks.
COMMODITIES
Gold and Silver are managing to hold above its supports and are trying to bounce. They can consolidate for a few sessions before reversing higher. Copper is retaining its strength. Oil on the other hand seems to have failed to strong follow through buying and might see further dip in the coming days.
Gold (1,314) has bounced from its support at 1308 and can consolidate sideways between 1308 and 1325 before we see a fresh rally targeting 1350-1360.
Silver (15.85), though sustaining above its support level of 15.6, looks little weaker than gold. It can dip to revisit 15.7 and 15.6 levels in the near term.
Copper (2.81) continues to remain bullish for a test of 2.83 and 2.85 while it trades above 2.80.
Brent (62.10) can dip to test 61.5 and 61. A break below 61 can take the prices further lower to 60. WTI (53.75) has supports at 53 and 52.6 a below which can drag it to 52 and 51 in the coming sessions.
FOREX
Euro, Euro-Yen, Pound and Aussie look bearish just now. US Dollar could have limited scope on the upside before a corrective fall is seen in the near term.
Dollar Index (96.09) has risen to our expected 96.10. On the near term charts, 96.25 is a decent resistance and while that holds, we could see a dip in the Dollar Index back towards 95.50-95.00.
Euro (1.1401) is again headed towards support at 1.1350. 1.15 is an important resistance and while that holds, downside scope could get intensified in the medium term. For now we may see a test of supports at 1.1350 and 1.13 respectively.
Euro-Yen (125.12) came off from 126 itself instead of moving higher to 126.60/80. While below 126, the pair could come off towards 124.40 in the near term. Near term view is bearish.
Dollar Yen (109.72) has 21-day Ma at 110.10 just now from where it has come off a bit. Immediate resistance is seen in the 110.10-110.50 region from where a corrective dip back towards 109.00-108.50 is possible.
Pound (1.2952) has come off in line with our expectation and could test 1.29 or even lower levels of 1.27 in the coming sessions. View is bearish for the near term.
Aussie (0.7168) is also trading lower and while 0.73 resistance holds good, it could come off towards 0.71-0.70 on the downside. Mild support seen near 0.7150 but that could break on the downside as it may hold for a very short term.
Dollar Rupee (71.57) came off sharply yesterday after testing 71.81 on the upside. Immediate downside could be restricted to 71.40 with a possible bounce back towards 71.60/80 or even 72.00 in the medium term. For now while the Euro and Brent Crude trades weak, Rupee could gain some strength over today and tomorrow.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields have dipped a bit. The 2Yr and 5YR yield are down from 2.54% to 2.53% and 2.51% respectively, while the 10yr and the 30Yr are down from 2.73% and 3.06% to 2.70% and 3.03% respectively.
The UK yields also have dipped a bit. The 5Yr, 10Yr and 20Yr are trading at 0.877%, 1.1220% and 1.6590%, down from 0.9180%, 1.1760% and 1.71% respectively. The 20Yr has some support coming up just below current levels while the 5Yr and 10YR could have some more room on the downside before rising again from there.
The Indian 10YR GOI (7.6142%) came off sharply from 7.6817% pulling down Dollar-Rupee also with itself. It would be important to see if the yield re-attempts a rise towards 7.70% or comes off towards 7.58-55%. A break below 7.60% could pull down Dollar-Rupee further in the next few sessions.
