Key Highlights
- Crude oil price traded higher recently and tested the $53.20 resistance against the US dollar.
- There is a key bullish trend line formed with support at $50.45 on the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD.
- The US Import Price Index in Dec 2018 declined 1% (MoM), which was better than the -1.3% forecast.
- Today, the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending Jan 12, 2019 will be released, which is forecasted to increase from 216K to 220K.
Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
During the past two weeks, there was a steady increase in crude oil price from the $44.20 swing low against the US Dollar. The price broke the $48.00, $50.00 and $52.00 resistances to move into a positive zone.
Looking at the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD, the price even broke the $52.50 and $53.00 resistance levels plus settled above the 100 (red) simple moving average (4-hours) and the 200 (green) simple moving average (4-hours).
However, the $53.20 level acted as a solid resistance and prevented further upsides. Later, there was a downside correction below $52.00 and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $48.20 low to $53.22 high.
The decline was limited by the $50.50 support and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $48.20 low to $53.22 high. There is also a key bullish trend line formed with support at $50.45 on the same chart.
Therefore, dips in oil price towards the $50.50 and $50.45 levels remain supported, below which the price may slide towards the $50.00 handle. On the upside, the $53.20 level is a solid hurdle, above which buyers are likely to look for a test of the $55.00 level.
Looking at major pairs, EUR/USD declined recently and corrected below the 1.1440 support. On the other hand, dips in GBP/USD found support and the pair stayed above the 1.2750 pivot area.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
- Euro Zone CPI for Dec 2018 (YoY) – Forecast +1.6%, versus +1.6% previous.
- Euro Zone CPI for Dec 2018 (MoM) – Forecast 0%, versus -0.2% previous.
- US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 243K, versus 244K previous.
