STOCKS
Our caution about Resistances near current levels, or just overhead, for the Dow (23995.95, -5.97, -0.02%) and DAX (10887.46, -34.13, -0.31%) in the near-term may have some merit.
Note the Moving Average Resistance at 24000 on the 3-day line chart on the Dow and the trendline Resistance near 11000-11050 on the Daily Candles on the DAX. Both could see near-term dips towards 23500 and 10800-700 respectively before moving up further later. A fall below 23500 and 10700, if seen, may trigger a deeper decline.
The Nikkei (20359.70, +0.97%) has been consolidative over the last few days. It is long-term bullish while above trendline Support at 19500 on the Weekly Line chart and dips are likely to be bought.
Unlike the Nikkei, which does not seem to have any immediate Resistance, the Shanghai (2539.33, -0.57%) may have a near-term trendline Resistance on the Weekly Candles, which may/ may not be broken this week.
The Sensex (36009.84) and Nifty (10794.95) look a little mixed in the near-term and might/ might not produce a near-term dip, which might well get bought for the longer term.
COMMODITIES
Precious metals look bearish for the near term but could see a few sessions of sideways trade before falling sharply. Crude is set for a corrective dip. Copper could move up after a small period of ranged movement.
Brent (60.28) and Nymex WTI (51.40) have dipped a bit. Immediate resistance near 62.50 on Brent and 54 n WTI seem to be holding for now. While 62.50 and 54 holds, the prices could come off towards 58 and 50 respectively. A corrective dip could be in place for the coming sessions.
Gold (1292.60) and Silver (15.68) are stable. While above 1280, Gold has some scope of trading sideways within 1280-1300 region for a few more sessions. 1300-1320 is an important resistance zone for Gold in the near term and is likely to hold, pushing back the price to levels below 1280 soon. Silver is also ranged within 15.50-16.00 region and may trade sideways for the next 1-2 sessions before a sharp move on either side of the range is seen. Overall bias is towards the downside for the medium term.
Copper (2.6565) has some scope of rising towards 2.70/75 in the near term. Near term looks bullish.
FOREX
Euro (1.1469) is coming off 1.1570 while immediate resistance near 1.16 seems to be holding well. A test of 1.14 is possible in the near term. On the daily candles, the broad 1.16-1.1350 zone seems to be holding well. Near term looks bearish.
Dollar Index (95.62) is holding above 95 and could try to move up towards 96.50 again in the next few sessions. An eventual break above 98, if seen and sustains would turn bullish for the index in the longer run.
The Euro-Yen (124.04) continues to trade below 125.20 and while that holds, the pair has potential to move down further towards 123.00-122.80 in the near term. View is tilted to the downside just now.
Dollar Yen (108.19) is stable just now. While above 107, the pair looks bullish. Some sideways trade could be a possibility for the near term.
Pound (1.2844) has moved up sharply breaking above our expected resistance near 1.28. This rise above 1.28 if sustains could take Pound towards 1.30/31 in the near to medium term. View is bullish.
Aussie (0.7186) is heading towards the 3-day candle resistance near 0.73 before coming off from there. Near term looks potentially bullish.
USD-CNY (6.7523) has fallen sharply and looks strongly bearish. A pause could be seen near 6.70/68 levels from where a decent bounce could be expected. Near term looks strong for the Yuan.
Dollar Rupee (70.4950) could test 70.20 on the downside while it could be capped near 70.60/80 on the upside. 70.80 could eventually push the pair towards 70 in the near term.
INTEREST RATES
Friday saw a slight dip in US Yields (2Yr 2.54% down from 2.56%, 5Yr 2.53% down from 2.55%, 10Yr 2.70% down from 2.73% and 30Yr 3.02% down from 3.05%) on Friday. They seem to be consolidating sideways over the last few days. Now we are not very sure if they are likely to move up or down over the medium term. we need to watch the movement over the next few days for directional ideas.
As mentioned on Friday, keep an eye on the US-Japan 10Yr Spread (2.70%) which could be bouncing off a long-term Support trendline coming up from 1.62% in 2016. A further rise here could help pull Dollar-Yen higher.
The 10Yr GOI (7.5030%) moved up again on Friday after a small dip to 7.47% ealier in the week. we are not too sure of near term direction and have to stand back and see how the market evolves.
