The Aussie fell on Wednesday despite weaker US dollar, driven by increased EUR/AUD demand and AUD/JPY sales on current situation in the markets.
Pullback from double upside rejection at 0.7440 zone (50% of 0.7554/0.7327 downleg, reinforced by falling 20SMA and 4-hr cloud top) was so far contained by strong support at 0.7390 provided by 10SMA and nearby daily Tenkan-sen (0.7385), however, risk remains shifted to the downside.
Daily RSI is turning lower and slow stochastic is reversing just under overbought zone boundary, which may signal further easing, as overall picture is bearish.
Stronger negative signal could be expected on firm break below 0.7390/85 pivots that may trigger fresh weakness towards next supports at 0.7373/68 (Fibo 61.8% of 0.7329/0.7444 / 4-hr cloud base), loss of which would confirm reversal and lower top at 0.7444.
Alternative scenario requires current weakness to stay above 0.7390, with fresh attempts higher to emerge from here. Bounce back to pivotal 0.7440 resistance zone and eventual break higher is needed to signal resumption of recovery leg from 0.7329.
Res: 0.7406, 0.7419, 0.7433, 0.7444
Sup: 0.7390, 0.7385, 0.7373, 0.7368
