Stocks
Broad range of 27000- 24500 is holding for Dow (25413.22, +0.49%) when seen on the weekly chart. While above 25000, a rise towards 25750-26000 looks likely.
Dax (11341, -0.11%) has not been able to break above 11500 and looks bearish just now. A fall towards 11100-11000 is possible while 11500 holds strong.
The Nikkei (21755.46, +0.35%) is trading in a small sideways range for the past 3-sessions. Resistance at 22000 is important and only a break on the upside would indicate long term bullishness. While below 22000, a fall towards 21200-21000 is possible.
Shanghai (2675.52, -0.13%) seems to be holding below the resistance at 2700. Unless a break above 2700 is not seen, we could expect a fall towards 2600 or lower again in the coming sessions. Watch price action near 2700.
The Nifty (10682.20, +0.62%) is trying to break above the 21-day MA just at current levels on the daily line charts. A rise towards 10800-10900 is on the cards for the near term if the breaks above 10700.
36000 is an important horizontal resistance which is likely to produce a rejection for Sensex (35457.16, +0.56%). Near term could see a rise to 36000.
COMMODITIES
Brent (67.44) and WTI (57.42) are trying to move up eventually. Brent could gradually rise towards 70 in the near term. WTI on the other hand has resistance near 59 from where a corrective dip is possible.
Gold (1222.30) has dipped a bit. As mentioned last week, there is immediate resistance near 1230 on the daily candles which is likely to hold and push back the prices towards 1210 once again this week. Gold looks bearish for the near term.
Copper (2.7790) has also slightly come off from resistance near 2.80 as seen on the daily candles. While that holds, we could see a fall towards 2.70-2.65 again in the near term. Else a break above 2.80 if seen could take it higher towards upper resistance at 2.85.
FOREX
Euro and Pound could move towards crucial resistances near 1.155 and 1.30 while the Dollar Index moves towards support near 96.25-00. USDINR has crucial support at 71.70 which should hold.
Dollar Index (96.45): There is crucial support at 96.00-25 for the Dollar Index. While above this support, upside chances still remain for the near term. Only a decisive break below 96 might negate further upside.
Euro (1.1409) : Crucial resistance is seen near 1.145-1.150 on daily and 3 day line charts and slightly higher near 1.155 on weekly candles. Euro could hence again come off from the 1.145-1.155 zone in the near term. If it crosses above 1.155, the downside could then possibly be negated.
USD/JPY (112.65) has some more room to fall towards 112 on daily candles. The 21 weeks MA at 111.8 could also be a crucial support level. Current preference is for 112 to be tested in the near term. Break below 112 would be quite bearish.
Aussie (0.7316) : Last week’s close above the 21 weeks MA ( 0.7254) makes Aussie look potentially bullish in the next couple of weeks. However, it has come off slightly from resistance near 0.733 on 3 day candles which could produce an interim dip during this week.
Pound (1.2834) might spend another week ranging between 1.30 and 1.27. Only a break above 1.30 or a break below 1.27 would give any hint of further direction for the next 3-4 weeks. Preference looking at the monthly chart is slightly tilted to the downside.
EUR/JPY (128.53) looks like it could rise towards resistance on daily candles near 129.25 and then come off from there back towards 128 in the current week.
Dollar Rupee (71.915): 71.70 is a weekly trend support and while that holds, we may look for a bounce back towards 72.00 and higher in this week.
INTEREST RATES
Crucial to watch the 3% level on the US 10 year yield now.
US 10 Year yield (3.06%) : As expected, the US 10 year has dipped towards 3.05%. If it breaks below 3.05%, there is stronger and more crucial support near 3.0% which should hold in the near term.
German 10 year yield (0.37%) : There is still some room for further downmove towards support near 0.30% in the near term, before an eventual rise from there back towards 0.5%.
The German-US 10 Year yield spread (-2.69%) is at crucial resistance near -2.70% from where it should again dip. Alternatively, a break above this resistance could be bullish.
