STOCKS
Although the Dow (26458.31, +0.07%) is trading a bit higher, while immediate support at 26250 holds, there is chance of the index rising back towards 26750-27000 l3eves eventually. A break below 26250, if seen would open up downside chances of testing 26000.
Dax (12246.73, -1.52%) came off sharply to test 12200 facing sharp rejection from resistance at 12500. It could possibly come off towards 12100-12000 before again bouncing back towards 12500. Near term looks bearish.
Nikkei (24287.84, +0.70%) continues to move up slowly. After breaking above 24200, if the index is unable to come off from 24400 levels, the upside momentum could take it towards 24800-25000 soon.
Shanghai (2821.35, +1.06%) has moved up but will have to rise beyond 2850 to trigger a fresh upmove in the longer run. For now, while the resistance near 2850 holds, the index may come off towards 2800-2750 again in the near term.
Nifty (10930.45, -0.43%) has important support in the 10800-10850 region which is likely to holds and eventually push the index to higher levels. Unless it breaks below 10800, bulls still have some chances of a come-back.
COMMODITIES
Baker Hughes data released Friday showed the US oil rig count fell by three to 863 in the week ended September 28. Also the ongoing supply concerns ahead of the reimposition of the US sanctions on Iran seem to provide some price support to the Crude.
Brent (83.21) and WTI (73.59) have risen sharply. Brent is moving as expected and could soon test 85-86 levels on the upside before coming off from there. Weekly candles indicate that 85-86 could be seen in the next 1-2 weeks.
Breaking above immediate resistance near 73, WTI (73.59) could now be headed towards 76-78 levels in the medium term. Near to medium term looks bullish towards 78.
Gold (1192.70) is stable. Support near 1175 is likely to hold keeping the prices either stable below 1200 or pushing it upwards towards 1220 again in the near term.
Copper (2.8005) rose back from 2.75 as expected. There is immediate resistance near 2.88 but on the longer term the price looks bullish.
FOREX
Dollar Index (95.188) is trading higher and is headed towards 95.50-96.00 levels again in the near term. Immediate view is bullish.
Important horizontal supports near 1.550 and 1.1500 are seen on the Euro (1.1595) daily chart and may provide some support in the near term to bounce back towards 1.1650-1.1700 again in the coming sessions. Below 1.15, the next important support is at 1.14 on the 3-day candles.
Dollar Yen (113.91) is trading just near important resistance at 114.Note that 114 and 115 are important resistances on the weekly candle charts and are likely to hold, indicating limited upside for Dollar-Yen in the near term. A short corrective dip either from 114 or anywhere between 114-115 region is possible in the near term. If Nikkei comes off from 24400 in the near term, upside for Dollar-Yen could be limited.
Euro-Yen (132.09) could come off towards 131 support this week. Overall trade region for the near term is likely to be 131-133, where the currency pair is likely to spend the next 1-2 weeks at least.
Pound (1.3031) is coming off to test support zone of 1.300-1.295 which is likely to be test in this week. A break below this support will call for a lower support at 1.28-1.27 on weekly candles. While below 1.32, near to medium term loks bearish.
Aussie (0.7219) faced rejection as the near term resistance on the 3-day candles has held well. While the chart shows possibility of a fall towards 0.715, the par has bounced slightly from the daily 21-Ma support which indicates a rise in the near term towards 0.7250. Overall there could be some near term ranged movement for now. As mentioned last week, Aussie has support in the 0.7175-0.708 zone on the weekly chart which could eventually take it higher in the longer term.
Dollar Rupee (72.49) is likely to remain ranged in the broad 72.20-72.80 region. With increase in Crude prices, it is likely that the USDINR could again move up towards 72.60/80, within the mentioned range. Unless a break on either side of the range is seen, there is little clarity on further direction. In such moments, we would wait and watch for any cues from the markets.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10 Year (3.07%) has risen again from 3.05% but is likely to remain below 3.10% eventually coming off in the medium term. 3.0-2.9% is the target on the downside while the 10Yr remains below 3.10%.
The 10 Year German-US spread (-2.60%) has fallen and is just above the near term horizontal support which if holds could push the yield spread back towards -2.55%.
The German 10 year yield (0.472%) has scope on the upside towards 0.55-0.6% before coming off from there in the longer run.
The Japan 30Yr (0.9%) seems as if it is trying to break above the long term resistance and while it moves higher, it could pull up the other shorter term yields also in the medium term.
