The Euro remains within the previous week’s range, underpinned by 200SMA but repeated upside rejections at 1.0950, keep the larger rally from 1.0568(10 Apr trough) limited for now. Firm bullish setup of daily MA’s that formed multiple bull-crosses and strong momentum studies are supportive but reversal of slow stochastic from overbought territory offsets bullish signals for now. Friday’s daily candle with long upper shadow weighs on the near-term structure, however, the price is expected to remain directionless while range boundaries (200SMA at 1.0833 and multiple upside rejection at 1.0950) are intact. From the fundamental side, optimism for Macron’s victory on the final round of French election and positive recent EU data are supporting the Euro which is eyeing this week’s FOMC policy meeting for further signals. Although, Fed is unlikely to change interest rates at this meeting, markets are focusing on the comments after meeting. More hawkish tone would be a good signal for the action in June’s meeting that would boost the dollar and send the Euro into deeper correction. On the other side, dovish tone from Fed, accompanied with rising evidence of dysfunctional US Congress, would have a negative impact on the greenback and eventually send the single currency above 1.0950 barrier towards next target at 1.1000. Markets are also focusing on US Nonfarm Payrolls due on Friday, for more clues. Forecast for April is 185K after surprise drop to 98K in March.
Res: 1.0900, 1.0950, 1.1000, 1.1033
Sup: 1.0850, 1.0833, 1.0804, 1.0776
