The pair holds firm tone and trades above 200SMA in early Thursday’s trading, but the upside was so far limited as dollar’s bulls started to lose traction after comments from President Trump about tariffs on China were less harsh than expected. Bullish techs continue to underpin but fundamentals may weaken structure. In addition to trade war concerns, release of US Q1 GDP data could also influence dollar’s performance. The GDP is expected to stay unchanged at 2.2% in Q1 which could signal stabilization after steady descend since October last year and support dollar on better than expected release. Bulls eye trendline resistance at 110.66, violation of which would generate initial bullish signal for test of 110.90 (15 Jun high) and open way for 111+ gains. Weekly close above 200SMA is needed to confirm scenario. Conversely, return and close below 200SMA (110.19) and psychological 110.00 support would generate negative signal and increase risk of further weakness.
Res: 110.49, 110.66, 110.90, 111.39
Sup: 110.19, 110.00, 109.70, 109.51
